I love a good "Top Ten" post... and I love underdogs. So, what could be better than a Top Ten post about the Underdogs for the new year. Wow, that even tosses in the "New Yew's Prediction Post".
So, without further delay, here are my
Top Ten Underdogs for 2009
10. General Motors. They used to be the biggest corporation in the world... and now they are burning through BILLIONS of dollars a month with NO hope in sight for actually turning a profit again. The have massive labor cost issues, an uphill battle with the economy, a dealer network that is about 5 times too large, and WAY too expensive. They need a cheerleader...
9. Chrysler. Ok, they aren't in as bad a shape as GM in the US... but they have almost no presence outside of the US. They are owned by a company that might really want to NOT own them... And they have the same challenges as GM... but fewer dealers. The Challenger is seriously cool. The plug-in Hybrid minivan won't be ready until probably 2010. They need a cheerleader...
8. Detroit. Well, is it any shocker that the home of the American auto industry is in AT LEAST as much trouble as the hometown companies? Of course it doesn't help when the Mayor gets his parole pulled... It is a sad state of affairs when a house is over-priced by $20,000 when it is free. Maybe Detroit would benefit from a reality TV show...
7. The Mainstream Media. How could they be an underdog when they control the story? Well... they DON'T control the story, and whether we are talking about TV or newspapers, they are becoming less relevent as news organizations. Look at the just completed Presidential Race. How can anyone take their objectivity seriously when the vast majority of them were pulling for the same guy, and had to be dragged kicking and screaming to say anything negative about him. They need some objective counsel...
6. The Rich. It is going to suck to be rich over the next few years. Ok, it might not completely suck... but it may be less fun. Taxes are going up, public acceptance will be going down. Despite the fact that "the rich" are the ones that fuel jobs, Washington is looking to do a beatdown. They need a voice in DC... more of a voice than they get for their money now...
5. Global Warming zealots. Sure, you have Al Gore and Hollywood. But, looking forward, there are bleak times coming. Temps aren't doing what you said... The hottest decade on record was the 1930s. People keep finding mistakes in NASA's data... always showing that reality is actually cooler than NASA says. When 2008 comes down as cooler than 2007... which was cooler than 2006, the pressure might kick up to show more than another computer model. Global Warming might get handed a "chill pill."
4. Republicans. Come on... admit it... The GOP is hurting right now. They lost complete control in DC... and I'm not talking about the election results. They got their butts wiped there, too. There are people that are saying out loud that there is NO way the Republican Party can come back from this. Maybe... Maybe not... But they are certainly an underdog. On the flip side, the last two office that were elected BOTH went to Republicans... there are a few voices in the punditry that think there might be some voter remorse after election day. But the GOP is still a giant underdog. And they need talk radio to cheer for them...
3. Real Estate. Could there be more of an underdog than the real estate market? Why yes.. two actually. But seriously, the vast majority of the country has had value deterioration over the last couple of years. Agents are the favorite kicking post of the media and analysts... not to mention the bubble bloggers. Our "representative" organization... the NAR... is a laughing stock and has about as much credibility as Milli Vanilli. Real estate is truly as much of an underdog as there is... almost.
2. The Stock Market. Ok, real estate went down... but the stock market TANKED. And it isn't even doing much of a dead cat bounce. Some people think it could go down MORE. There simply isn't any confidence in the stock market... and no confidence means no money. No money means prices pooping. The stock market is also a leading indicator of the economy. Usually the stock market is leading the economy by 6-9 months. Right now, that doesn't bode well... Can I get a booyah?
1. Big Corporations. It's hard to cheer for the big guys. I mean REALLY hard. They take OUR money (bailout) and don't want to even say how they are spending it. (sidenote: Imagine walking into a bank and telling them you want a metric buttload of cash, and what you are going to do with it is NOE of their business..). And as if the trillion friggin' dollars wasn't enough... there are some people in DC that think they need a couple more trillion friggin' dollars. To top it off, the actions of many of these same companies have created an air of corporate mistrust... they were so bad that they can't even trust themselves anymore. Talk about an underdog... These are the guys that are seriously hard to love.
Lane, it seems like 10 out of 10 times we disagree. But you've written a great blog for 2009!
Happy New Year,
Jay
I loved your predictions, and I love your underdogs. You are very wise, and you are the first of the blogs I subscribe to that posted in 2009!
Just stopping by to say Happy New Year Lane. All the best in 2009.
Very thoughtful and no one could disagree.
Unfortunately, you missed the most important underdog in the scenario.
The American family. The American family is not only the underdog but also the victim of the real estate meltdown.
Fortunately, the American family knows how to fight back. We'll vote these fools out in time and vote in some new fools who will listen to the American family's needs rather than the needs and wishes of their real constituents, the corporate lobbyists.
I'm in fight back mode.
Lane, very interesting post. I don't think it will really suck to be rich, as long as you've got good karma! Love the audio. Happy New Year!
Lane, your post is pretty much right on target and many of these underdogs will be helped out by our government with vast amounts of money and little to no oversight. Which means that, as Lenn stated, the American family (arguably the biggest underdog) will continue to cope with fewer jobs, tighter credit, higher food prices and no bailout in sight. They will watch whatever tv news they want, and be distracted by who's praying at the inauguration and other idiocies that the media will glom onto.
Truly the best blog I've read today
Lane,
Good list and I'll bet that most would agree to all on your list. Happy New Year
While I don't agree with all on your list I appreciate you putting it together for us. Happy New Year!
Lane congrats on your feature
Hi Lane,
Thanks for saying what I think most agents are thinking: "Our "representative" organization... the NAR... is a laughing stock and has about as much credibility as Milli Vanilli."
Lane, great list and great insight ! There are also many realtors out there who can really have come back years as well ! And perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles to win the super bowl !! : ) ~ Chris Somers
Interesting Post. It's given me something to think about.
Happy New Year, Lane. Looks like you started off the year on a serious note here. It would be great if all of these could survive, but some won't. I think we're going to see at leat one automaker out of business...
I love underdogs. I don't really have a professional football team I follow. Normally I just cheer for the underdog.. This year Utah is in the Sugar Bowl and I believe considered the underdog.. Go Utah! Have a Great New Year.
6. The Rich.
Hmmm...I have never heard anyone complain about being rich (except for a some lottery winners!), maybe a little less fun but even that is hard to guage.
You left ot Dallas Cowboy's fans, of which I am one and so is Jason Crouch *sigh*.
Best of the New Year to you though!
You forgot the Detroit Lions with their 0-16 record.....are things so bad that they didn't even qualify in your top ten? lol
Great Post!
Shawn
You nailed that list---sorry to see Real Estate included but let's face the reality of it.
Hi Lane, Fun list of underdogs for us to ponder in this brand new year. Detroit Lions ? O.K. how do the Lions' coaching staff count to ten ? Answer: " 0 " and 1, "0" and 2, "0" and 3, "0" and 4,...
Bummmer.. and I was hoping to start the year on a positive note...About the Lions...(see Bill's comment above)..I have to agree...and being from Detroit...I feel the pain
Len - right on the american family should replace the Rich slot, it will never suck to be rich no matter how much the taxes go up, come on now. The rich will never hurt, maybe they loose the bungalow in Fiji, but they have seen worse. Middle America is a place where you will see the real pain.
But otherwise I love the post and was right on.
Jay - Of course you disagree... ;^ ) And I disagree with you. And I also appreciate you stopping by.
Janna - Thanks for stopping by. We'll see how I do...
Susie - Thanks. And go find that cowboy.
Lenn - I didn't include the family because I think that they ARE going to be well represented in the near future...
Laura - The rich are not only under fire, but unloved... :^ (
Amy - Should I say that the American Family has cast their die?
Janice - I guess it was your first blog on the day.. the ONLY way I could come in #1...
Neal - I sure hope everyone doesn't agree... ;^ )
Diane - Thank you for not agreeing... it's the rich, right? :^ )
Hugh - Thank you. It has been a while.
Mark - I think the NAR and the UAW both need adjustments... and I'm not talking about going to the chiroprator.
Chris & Steph - I don't pay enough attention to football to even have a clue...
Bob - Enjoy.
Kris - I think they will all survive... they will just look different. We will see fewer brands though.
Mark - You can now officially cheer for Detroit... 0-16. They REALLY wanted that #1 draft pick.
Russell - They are almost the only group that can be picked on without consequences. And talk to some of you "mid-wealthy" friends. Small business owners that make $500k or so... They aren't sitting on a load of cash, and most of their money goes back into their business to expand (spelled H-I-R-E) or to purchases... which fuel the economy. A tax increase curtails their expansion (spelled H-I-R-I-N-G) and slows their job producing purchasing.
Shawn - Just another reason Detroit is an underdog.
Diane - I'm surprised people here didn't think RE should be #1...
Bill - That is funny...
janeAnne - I used to live in Jackson... I was a Vikings fan.
Mark - Middle America will hurt because they are willing to beat up the hands that employ them. Sorry, but I am keeping that one on the list.
The two "R's" Republicans and real estate really are 2 big underdogs right now! Thing can cahnge, but it will be slow.
Lane - I think that Americans are the biggest underdogs, it's sad that the people that work hard in this country that put their faith in their local and national leaders were sold out to lobbyists and special interest groups.
A very comprehensive list and I am impressed with your observations! I also cheer on the "underdogs", may they rise above their adversity and survive!!
Lane - Nice job here. I particularly like all the butt references. I believe the first 3 on your list won't make the year. GO LIONS!
Love your list, and you're very kind to label them "underdogs" - I can think of a few other names that would be appropriate...
Let me think I live in a republican state, that is home to Detroit, Chrysler and GM. We need a lot of cheerleaders. Happy New Year.
fantastic list, except I would sat that mortgage and real estate professionals need to take the top Spot ! hoping you have a great 2009
You're top ten is right on target! But are there even enough cheerleaders out there who can help them all? I dare say that there are not.
Lane: GOOD POST.
Okay, I HATE to admit you're right about Republicans (I'm proudly ONE) are underdogs--but yes, right NOW we are. We blew it.... But I am hopeful we've learned some HARD lessons and will make our way back.
May I add one? Please? COMMON SENSE. It is impossible to have politics with common sense - you either have one or the other. Politics looks to benefit the politician and common sense to benefit the constituency.
Great job Lan and HNY to you. P.S. I still have all 8 fingers.
the thing about being the underdog is that you get the chance to prove everyone wrong!! Best of luck in the New Year!! JE
Very true in all those cases. But, many underdogs rise up and become even better, I'm rooting for many on your list. I"m sure you know which ones.
Great post and well said, I hope they all get the boost they need but this didn't happen overnight and it's not going away overnight or in four years.
Lane,
That's a nice list. Many large banks and financial institutions are in a sorry state nowadays, much as a result of their own inept actions. Hopefully this mess will change their thinking, although don't count on it.
Jim - You know what they say... Things are always darkest before they go totally black... or is it before dawn? I can never remember.
Debbie - Faith in politicians is misplaced... ALWAYS.
Caren - Far from comprehensive... the Atlanta Thrashers aren't on there.
Tom - Just a couple of butt references...
Margaret - But they are underdogs, too...
Terry - Michigan has hardly been a Red state lately...
James - We are underdogs, but not to the level of some others.
Jim & Maria - I added some cheerleaders to the posts...
Kat - The lesson should have been tattood on the GOP leadership after the Gingrinch Republican Revolution...
Ken - Underdogs need a fighting chance... The Detroit Lions and common sense don't have a chance right now.
Jason - We can hope...
Missy - I can make a few guesses.
Don - The NAR members need an organization with a spine.
Charles - Sure... isn't Obama going to fix it all? After all, it is change we can believe in.
Esko - They asked for it... got it... and not got our money, too.
Great post Lane, thank you! This is a very good list and I think you've made some good points:) Cheers and have a very good new year - don't forget to stop by The Real Estate Wiki sometime - there's a lot of great info you could contribute:)
Good list..... I think GM is an easy bet. I am dumping a bucket load into that puppy as there is no way Obama is letting them go into bankrupcy. I wish they were, but since their not, it is time to invest..
Lane, loved the post! Think everyone else has pretty much said it all. You did a great job of summarizing what we're up against and in a witty presentation. Thanks for taking the time to put your list together. Great job!
DJ - I have opened the window to take a look...
Tim - Could be... I'm thinking about it. They might go BK, but they would re-organize.
Deb - Thank you for reading.
I'm looking at real estate and stocks as being 'on sale.' Anyone who wishes they had bought 4-5 years ago now has that opportunity again today. And this time around, I think we'll have a lot less volatility and get back on the path of slow sustained growth.
The GOP learned a lot this election cycle. Look for them to reorganize and take a few pages from Obama's online strategy, and that could make for an interesting mid-term election.
I guess we need to add the Arizona Cardinals to that list of underdogs. WOW!
Lisa - Thanks for the re-blog.
John - I think you hit on both points!
Mel - Did I add the Thrashers yet?