I am a die-hard car guy.  I love the machines.  They are history, technology and excitement.  But they aren't the only story.  They are certainly important, but they are tools... tools are utilized and achieve their glory at the hands of gifted craftsmen. This is about the gifted craftsmen.  They are legion.  There are hundreds of drivers that have left their impression in the world of racing, as well as the larger world. Fangio, Nuvolari, Shelby, Penske, Schumacher, Petty.  I could go on forever...  These guys are unmistakably part of history. Juan Migeul Fangio and Tazio Nuvolari... imagine racing at the edges of the performance envelope... with no roll cage, no HANS device... no SEATBELT!  In the days of Fangio and Nuvolari it was said that there were old race drivers and bold race drivers, but no old & bold race drivers.  Both lived long, but drove like banshees...



The next two are Americans... and while both made names racing, it was what they did after they drove that will secure their places in history.  For Carroll Shelby, it is the Mustangs and Cobras bearing his name.  For Roger Penske it is his team ownership success... NASCAR and IndyCars have been his playground.


Micheal Shumacher was a machine... the Terminator of Formula 1.  Seven World Championships...  In 2004 he won 13 of 18 Formula 1 races for the season.  Five of his seven titles were consecutive.  He is regarded as possibly the world's first billionaire athlete... and he came from unassuming roots.  His father took on extra jobs to get him into kart racing at 4 years old.

There is a reason that Richard Petty is known as the King.  He is one of two racing drivers my mother can identify.  And since the other one was Paul Newman... maybe he shouldn't count.  200 victories.  There isn't another NASCAR driver that is even close.  But even more than that, he is an ambassador for the sport and even 20 years after retirement he is one of the most respected people in the pits.

I actually wrote this to submit to the Inman contest to get a couple of free passes to Connect in NY.  But, I determined that I wasn't going to be able to go even with free passes, so I decided not to submit the essay... but I figured I would toss out the essay for comment.  And NO, I didn't assume that the essay would be good enough... I just couldn't take that chance.  ;^ )

For many years, real estate agents were the guardians of information.  We had it, and we didn’t want to allow consumers to uncover too much of it.  We made the process mysterious and exotic, and tried to cultivate what was our greatest asset… listing information.  We had a lock on listing information and by holding that information tightly, we could control consumers. (by "we" and "us", I mean "the industry")

If a buyer wanted to know what was available, they had to go through us.  If a seller wanted to know what had been paid for other properties, they had to go through us.  We were also the gatekeeper.  The only way into the MLS was through a traditional agent.  If a property was to be listed in the MLS, it was going to be through a traditional agent.

Now the opposite is where we can find our value proposition.  Information is plentiful… interpretation is the valuable commodity.  Knowing that there are 300 listings that may or may not meet the needs of the buyer is important, but knowing which 12 they should look at first is valuable.  Knowing the price of every home that sold in the subdivision in the last three years is important, but knowing which houses are comparable, and HOW they compare is valuable.  The MLS is within reach of those without a functional agent in many areas.  Through unbundled or minimum service brokerages, even those that are basically FSBO are still able to get their home in the MLS.  Being able to put a listing in the MLS for a seller is important, but knowing how to most effectively and efficiently market a property is valuable.

The value proposition of real estate agents is and will be shifting from that of a controller of information to an interpreter of information, and from being the gateway to the MLS to being a marketing consultant and resource.  Access to information is easy, it is plentiful.

As I look at market reports, I see too many that are just an activity list.  That doesn't mean anything... unless there is a frame of reference.  Knowing that there were 25 properties sold in Lilburn in November doesn't say much... Were there more or less sold the previous year... or month?

As we move into the future, information will become even more plentiful.  As that happens, there will be more of a need to interpret and vet that information.  The future for real estate agents is to be the local expert and marketing expert.  Oddly, this isn’t new.  It is what the best agents have always done. 

I just got an email from Matt Fagioli (ok, he is my broker, so I get LOTS of emails from him) about REtechSouth.  He and Brad Nix have made some changes and announcements, and this is shaping up to be an incredible event. 

First, let me share the concept of the conference:

• REtechSouth was born out of the desire to host a conversation about the technological changes impacting the real estate industry. A place where agents, brokers, lenders, builders and many other real estate industry practitioners could join together to collaborate on how technology can improve business. What tools work best? What websites are best for networking? Which vendor has the best product? What are the best practices for growing my online presence? These are the types of questions REtechSouth hopes to answer every year. The goal is to get some of the best minds in the industry together in one room to share the knowledge.

I went to last year's event, and spent some time after the event talking with both Brad and Matt.  These guys are working at putting something special together.  I believed enough that I joined Matt's brokerage, Diamond Dwellings.  I wasn't looking for a brokerage to join last year...  But, I also had spent too much time having to invent the wheel with my old brokerage.  REtechSouth wasn't a commercial for ANY brokerage model or broker, but simply a gathering of agents, brokers and others in the RE.net sphere that wanted to be better.

Last year's event was among the best I had been to at that time.  Since that event I have been to Inman SF, RE Bar Camp in SF and some other events.  Honestly, I think that RE Bar Camp in San Francisco was at the top of that list, with REtechSouth coming in second and Inman coming in third (value for time and money spent!).  I know that this year's REtechSouth will eclipse last year's event. 

Brad and Matt put last year's event on with only a few WEEKS notice.  This year they have been chipping away at it for almost a YEAR.  Last year's event was small... only about 125 attendees, but they were high powered folks.  Pat Kitano, Jon Washburn, Kevin Tomlinson, among others...  This year there will be about 500 folks attending, and the high powered voices will be back with reinforcements.  Take a look at the website and see who is going to be there... then register.

You need to be there.  This conference will be about delivering better marketing for our listings as well as marketing ourselves better.  It is also about making our jobs more efficient and more effective.  I am a technology oriented REALTOR, and I will be there.  If you want to be better with your technology... you should be to.

There are a couple of things I have been working on for LilburnDwellings for 2009... 

• First will be to get into more listed properties to provide an unbiased look at the value of the property.  

Because of MLS (Multiple Listing Service) rules and NAR (National Association of REALTORS) rules as well as GREC (Georgia Real Estate Commission) agency laws, I have to be a bit discreet when I talk about properties.  Basically, I can't identify and talk about a property I don't have listed without the permission of the listing agent (or the seller if there isn't a listing agent).  But I can talk about properties with my clients... So:

• I will be creating a Deal List of properties that I think are good deals at their listed prices. 
  

I actually have done a few of these last year.  Of the four that I highlighted, one is sold (waiting for the closing info... it was pending with a date of 12/23/08 but hadn't posted yet as closed in the MLS), one is pending and the others are still available. 

• I am going to keep up the surveys of marketing for listed properties. 
  

I see so many properties poorly marketed, and one of the best ways to make sure that MY property listings are never neglected is to keep highlighting the short-comings of the marketing on other properties. 

• Of course, I will continue to provide my Gwinnett County Market Reports... and I will be adding specialized Lilburn Market Reports. 
  

I have been gathering data for Lilburn for almost a year.  I need all of the background data in order to provide a solid analysis of the market.  You can get the numbers anywhere!.. but the numbers aren't as important as knowing WHAT the numbers MEAN.  I always try to let you know what the numbers mean... instead of just telling you that there are 457 active listings... 

I love a good "Top Ten" post... and I love underdogs.  So, what could be better than a Top Ten post about the Underdogs for the new year.  Wow, that even tosses in the "New Yew's Prediction Post". 

So, without further delay, here are my

Top Ten Underdogs for 2009

10.  General Motors.  They used to be the biggest corporation in the world... and now they are burning through BILLIONS of dollars a month with NO hope in sight for actually turning a profit again.  The have massive labor cost issues, an uphill battle with the economy, a dealer network that is about 5 times too large, and WAY too expensive.  They need a cheerleader... 

9.  Chrysler.  Ok, they aren't in as bad a shape as GM in the US... but they have almost no presence outside of the US.  They are owned by a company that might really want to NOT own them...  And they have the same challenges as GM... but fewer dealers.  The Challenger is seriously cool.  The plug-in Hybrid minivan won't be ready until probably 2010.  They need a cheerleader...

8.  Detroit.  Well, is it any shocker that the home of the American auto industry is in AT LEAST as much trouble as the hometown companies?  Of course it doesn't help when the Mayor gets his parole pulled...  It is a sad state of affairs when a house is over-priced by $20,000 when it is free.  Maybe Detroit would benefit from a reality TV show...

7.  The Mainstream Media.  How could they be an underdog when they control the story?  Well... they DON'T control the story, and whether we are talking about TV or newspapers, they are becoming less relevent as news organizations.  Look at the just completed Presidential Race.  How can anyone take their objectivity seriously when the vast majority of them were pulling for the same guy, and had to be dragged kicking and screaming to say anything negative about him.  They need some objective counsel...

6.  The Rich.  It is going to suck to be rich over the next few years.  Ok, it might not completely suck... but it may be less fun.  Taxes are going up, public acceptance will be going down.  Despite the fact that "the rich" are the ones that fuel jobs, Washington is looking to do a beatdown. They need a voice in DC... more of a voice than they get for their money now...

5.  Global Warming zealots.  Sure, you have Al Gore and Hollywood.  But, looking forward, there are bleak times coming.  Temps aren't doing what you said...  The hottest decade on record was the 1930s.  People keep finding mistakes in NASA's data... always showing that reality is actually cooler than NASA says.  When 2008 comes down as cooler than 2007... which was cooler than 2006, the pressure might kick up to show more than another computer model. Global Warming might get handed a "chill pill."

4.  Republicans.  Come on... admit it...  The GOP is hurting right now.  They lost complete control in DC... and I'm not talking about the election results.  They got their butts wiped there, too.  There are people that are saying out loud that there is NO way the Republican Party can come back from this.  Maybe...  Maybe not...  But they are certainly an underdog.  On the flip side, the last two office that were elected BOTH went to Republicans... there are a few voices in the punditry that think there might be some voter remorse after election day.  But the GOP is still a giant underdog.  And they need talk radio to cheer for them...

3.  Real Estate.  Could there be more of an underdog than the real estate market?  Why yes.. two actually.  But seriously, the vast majority of the country has had value deterioration over the last couple of years.  Agents are the favorite kicking post of the media and analysts... not to mention the bubble bloggers.  Our "representative" organization... the NAR... is a laughing stock and has about as much credibility as Milli Vanilli. Real estate is truly as much of an underdog as there is... almost.

2.  The Stock Market.  Ok, real estate went down... but the stock market TANKED.  And it isn't even doing much of a dead cat bounce.  Some people think it could go down MORE.  There simply isn't any confidence in the stock market... and no confidence means no money.  No money means prices pooping.  The stock market is also a leading indicator of the economy.  Usually the stock market is leading the economy by 6-9 months.  Right now, that doesn't bode well...  Can I get a booyah?

1.  Big Corporations.  It's hard to cheer for the big guys.  I mean REALLY hard.  They take OUR money (bailout) and don't want to even say how they are spending it.  (sidenote: Imagine walking into a bank and telling them you want a metric buttload of cash, and what you are going to do with it is NOE of their business..).  And as if the trillion friggin' dollars wasn't enough... there are some people in DC that think they need a couple more trillion friggin' dollars.  To top it off, the actions of many of these same companies have created an air of corporate mistrust... they were so bad that they can't even trust themselves anymore.  Talk about an underdog...  These are the guys that are seriously hard to love.

Real Estate and some otherwise...

For those that are interested, here are the predictions I made for 2008, as well as a wrap-up post about the results.  I was right on 6½ of the ten real estate predictions...  So here are the predictions for the coming year...

1. I'm looking for slightly lower mortgage rates through the first half of the year, and then a rise starting by the third quarter.  Going WAY out on a limb, I would say that there will be rates under 4.5% (without paying points) at some point before July...
2. Credit is going to loosen, but don't expect 2005...  It is actually moving in that direction already.
3. I'm looking for the inventory levels to decrease compared to 2008...  I'd like to see them drop 20% from 2008.  I think we will hit that target through the first three quarters (the end of 2008 was already trending down).
4. Foreclosures ARE going to increase, but they are NOT going to go up to the levels hyped by many in the media.  Some of the media are calling for doubling or tripling foreclosure rates...  I expect that the foreclosure rate will go up less than 50% compared to 2008.  As of November 2008, one of 234 properties is foreclosed.
5. I'm looking for prices to drop a little more in Gwinnett County through the year.  There might be stability in the 2nd quarter, but drops in the 1st and 3rd for sure.  I expect that the drop will be less than 10%.
6. Sales volume will post a slight increase for 2009.  I expect the 2nd quarter to post the strongest gains, year over year.
7. I think there is a good chance that the $7500 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit will be extended... and forgiven.  I'm not positive on this one, but I know that there are a lot of folks on Capitol Hill making noise about this one.
8. On a national basis, the media will start reporting positive news about the real estate market.  As much as the NAR is annoying by trying to spin everything as wonderful... there is a grain of truth.  Inventories are up, prices are down and loans are cheap for those that qualify.
9. Technology will be moving even more front and center in real estate sales.  Right now only about 4% of agents have a blog.  Only a fraction of those are actually posting to it regularly... and only a small portion are on services like Twitter, FaceBook and LinkedIn.
10. The financial crisis will deepen.  Unemployment will go up and things will be looking grim despite at least two more "stimulus packages" from the Democrat Administration.  They won't work because they won't be targeted for those that actually create jobs.

And I also wanted to toss in some bonus predictions:

• Red Wings and Bruins will go to the Stanley Cup Finals...  Bruins in 6 games.
• NY Islanders will be at the opposite end of the stats... Thrashers close behind.
• Chrysler will NOT be an independent car company at the end of the year (or will at least be VERY targeted by either Nissan or Ford).  Everyone will expect GM to buy them, but they already have too many brands, and extending that with Chrysler will be seen as a bad move.
• Look for Saturn and Hummer to either get sold or shuttered.
• Look for Toyota to extend their losses into at least two quarters of 2009... and post a loss for the first year.
• Finally, 2009 will extend the cooling cycle of Earth.  Global Warming fans will try to spin it, but there will be a LOT more attention paid to the fact that global temperatures peaked in 1934... and had a lower peak in 1998... and have been moving steadily down since 2006.

Of course I will revisit this at the end of 2009.

from LaneBailey.com

I just ran a survey of the newly listed properties from the last 30 days.  I have to say that I am quite surprised by what I found...

I was looking specifically for how the listings were presented.  We know from every bit of research done on buyer behavior that photos and virtual tours are among the most important things to the VAST majority of buyers.  Homes with few or no pictures are most often passed over... regardless of how nice the property might be.  Buyers want to see LOTS of pictures.  They want virtual tours, and they want both the pictures AND the virtual tours to be high quality.

So, with that in mind I took a trip through the last 30 days of listings for Lilburn in FMLS.  In that period, there were 56 new listings entered.  I sorted them by how recent they were.  I was looking to see how well presented the listings were.  I did NOT judge the quality of the photos, because that owuld be subjective.  I just judged on quantity.

Of the 56 newest listings:

• 8 had 0 pictures, 14.3%
• 7 had 1 picture, 12.5%
• 6 has 2-8 pictures , 10.7%
• 13 had 9-11 pictures, 23.2%
• 22 had 12 pictures , 39.3%
• 6 had virtual tours, 10.7%

I have to admit that I was stunned that over 60% of the listings did not have the maximum number of pictures allowed... and almost 90% had no virtual tour.  I'm not talking about bad tours... I am talking about ANY virtual tour.  Virtual tours are available for as little as $99...  I don't think those are great, but at least they are something.  And for the desperate, they can be done for less if the agent or seller provides the pictures.  Personally, I use a high quality tour and it is more expensive, but I also think EVERY listing needs a virtual tour.

If I recall correctly, it has been almost a year since FMLS changed to allow 12 pictures on the listing.  I have to say that I am stunned when I still see less than eight pictures on a listing (the old limit).  And when I see no pictures... or even the drive-by curb-shot... I wonder what the problem is.  Ugly property?  But even then, I would want a prospective buyer to know before they visit that it won't be a showplace.  I value their time, and don't want them to waste it looking at a property that won't suit their needs.  I nkow that when I take buyers out and the house isn't as advertised, my buyers are annoyed.

The Bottom Line...

With digital camera technology, the ease of uploading pictures, affordable virtual tours and the knowledge that images are what buyers want to see, there is no excuse for not maxing out the pictures AND providing a virtual tour for EVERY listing.

Agents and sellers that think that they are creating "mystery" by not showing pictures of their listings are just flat out mistaken.  There are too many options...  Instead of mystery, they just provide an excuse to move to the next listing.

from LilburnDwellings.com

This one isn't as specific as some of the other 101 Cars... this is a category. and frankly, if someone calls me and asks me if I want to beat on drive their Trophy Truck... I'm not asking what brand it is. I'm asking what time I have to show up and if I have to trade my wife.
Trophy truck in the desert tearing it up hard.
These things are just bad... in a good way. 1000+ horsepower (most cars have less than 200), 30+ inches of suspension travel (most cars have less than 6)... And although they seldom are capable of speeds over 150 mph, they can do most of that on roads that most people would drive 10 mph.

A friend of mine that has run lower budget off-road racers and ridden in a couple of trophy trucks said that sections where his truck was jumping around like the legs of a mogul skier were passed over by the trophy truck at three times the speed with the bumps being something he was aware of... but not consumed by. Not to say that it can't be a rough ride, but when they meet the limit it is because there is something substantial there...

I think that the suspension designs of these beasts are amazing... and varied. In NASCAR racing, there isn't a lot of room for design variation. in road racing, there are things that work... and most racers use those. In other types of racing, there are traditions or rules that limit the creativity of the builders. In Trophy Trucks... that is NOT the case. The designs are varied, and creativity is encouraged. The evolution is still in the stage where crazy things happen... and work.

Feel free to call me if you want me to drive your Trophy Truck...
from LaneBailey.com... be sure to visit if you'd like to read more of the 101 cars.

This is a two part post. It first give me an excuse to showcase a car that I think it too cool... The Subaru WRX STi. All Wheel Drive, turbo charged power, a great rallying history, plenty of mods available. It also allows me to talk about rally drivers... These guys have skills. In the US, they run roads without a preview. They have a navigator and a details set of instructions... In Europe (and anywhere else the WRC is run), the drivers get to pre-run the course with the navigator, but not in a race vehicle. What it comes down to is that rally drivers have to drive in three dimension (they fley, too) on roads that are constantly changing (gravel, dirt, and narrow twisty roads with debris) in whatever weather happens. These guys have skills. Here is an example.

And here is another example...


Thanks for the link to the first video Tazmann. from LaneBailey.com

If a TR7 and Darth Vader's Tie Fighter had a child, this would be it... I still think it should be black, but the normal livery is white with green and red stripes.

Loads of power... rear wheel drive and sideways.

Nothin' say lovin' like Ferrari power and a bad attitude.

Too many enthusiasts have never even heard of these.  I might not know about them if it hadn't been for a couple of chance encounters. 

As a kid, my family went to Ecuador for vacation a couple of times.  We had exchange students and went to visit with them.  On one of the trips, there was a road race (rallye/raide) passing through Manta.  We had the opportunity to view the cars up close after they came into town.  I was in heaven.  I was about 9 years old and loved cars... 

The following morning we got up early and headed out of town on a bus.  We hopped off about half an hour outside of Manta.  We sat down at a little roadside stand, waiting for the cars and eating bananas.  We had a couple of hours to wait.  But, when the time came we could hear the cars... for MILES.  These were full prepped race cars.  And they were clipping. 

The location that we were in had a couple of nice features.  We were on a small rise over the road (literally only a couple dozen feet from the edge).  The cars had a rise as they approached, which caused many of the cars to catch a little air.  As they were calming down from the jump, they had a gentle left and a sharp right turn complex. 

The cars were amazing.  These were road prepped rally cars, and they were flying... I mean in the air.  As they hit the ground, they rotated sideways and slid through the turns.  Engines screamed, tires squealed and the crowd gasped and cheered. 

One of the last cars to come by was a Stratos.  It had an amazing sound.  It was beautiful and menacing.  I swear that it had anger in its voice and glee at the same time. 

On our next trip a few years later, Angelo, our host, presented me with a model of the same car we saw racing.  I knew the Lancia Stratos...  I loved it, and would still love to own one of these evil, wonderful pieces of racing history. 

For more, feel free to visit 101 Cars on my other blog...