A friend of mine forwarded a Moody's study that was called "Aftershock - A study of the post Mortgage Meltdown." I went through it, and most of it is pretty dark... but then I started to notice something. The maps didn't look that bad. Ok, they didn't look that bad for the Southeast in general, or for the area around Atlanta, GA in particular. It isn't all happy, happy, joy, joy.
The first map is a map of the depth of correction for different areas around the country. Green = good, red = bad...
The red areas are forecast to have a more than 10% correction. Orange areas are between 5% and 10%. Blue areas are less than 5%. Green areas are not expected to decline. 
The second map is looking at mortgage defaults. The Atlanta area isn't faring as well in that regard, but the national average is 1.8%. I think that while it certainly isn't good that the Atlanta area is tracking along with the national averages , it certainly isn't calamitous. One other fact to keep in mind is that the Atlanta market led the nation in mortgage fraud for quite a while. It was only recently that we relinquished that title... and we are still in the top five.
The final map is a lot more important in my view. That is a measure of economic expansion/contraction. Again, we can see that the Atlanta area is in the green, and looking good. 
In this case, green means that the area is expanding economically. Blue is in a recovery. Orange is at risk. Red is in a recession.
So, from each of these maps we can glean a little piece of the puzzle. And it certainly is a puzzle.
While there certainly is a mantra of All Real Estate is Local that has been echoed here, and has now been picked up by the NAR, there is a national component. With very few exceptions, bad news is like an infection and it infects nearby areas. Good news doesn't get to act like an antibiotic, though. It certainly helps, but it isn't the cure-all to say that real estate is local, and my market is rocking.
As a counter point, I think it would be nice if some media personalities could look past their own backyard to see that DC, LA, NYC and Chicago aren't THE housing market. They are just a part...
For us here in Atlanta, the fundamentals are strong. The economy is good. The national issues are taking away with one hand (adding fear to the market) and giving with the other (incredible interest rates). Rental rates are rising, so owning your own home or investing in rentals that offer positive cash flow are good ideas.
If you are going to own your home, talk with a GOOD mortgage broker. Get a mortgage that you understand, and can afford. Get a home that you can afford. Take advantage of the fear in the market to find good deals. That doesn't mean that list prices are a good deal, and it doesn't mean that they aren't. You also need a quality real estate agent to help find the right properties, and determine the right price.
Unless otherwise noted, all content of this blog is the property of Lane Bailey, ©2012 Lane Bailey.
I'd love to hear from you...
Thanks Lane. THat's the type of information I can use to show my clients why they can't expect Tennessee prices to fall like California prices.
Larry - Nashville and the surrounding area looks pretty green to me.
Terry - We all know that real estate is governed by micro-markets. But, the micro-market next door affects us. The market next door affects us, as does the one in the next region. There is a national component. It would be nice if local medias could figure out that the local market isn't dependent on the national market, but that it is a component... and can move exactly the other way.