While researching yesterday’s blog entry, I ran across this little tidbit. Frankly, it p***es me off. I am proud to be a member of the NAR. I think that there is a place for a strong voice both for real estate professionals, and to champion the issues for increasing home ownership for consumers.
But this is downright stupid. Whistling past the graveyard. Spinning… without anything to spin.
Just as I will call the bubbleheads to task for making blanket predictions with no sort of timeline, I will call the NAR to task for making flat out bad predictions that they should have known to be wrong as they were making them.
- 12/11/06, Lereah predicts most of the correction is behind us, and we should sell 6.4 million units nationwide.
- 1/10/07, ups the sales forecast to 6.42 million.
- 2/7/07, ups it again to 6.44 million.
- Starting in March, downgrades the sales prediction every month until November hits 5.5 million… scrubbing almost a million homes from the beginning of the year. Each time there is a statement saying something to the effect of the worst is past.
- Beginning in May, Yun is doing the predicting… Lereah is at Move . com… Same stuff going on.
- In December, Yun revises sales for 2007 to be up slightly from the previous month’s prediction to 5.67 million units.
In what I hope to be a final bit of honesty, Yun states that 2008 may only be slightly better than 2007. But, after 12 consecutive downgrades, while each was accompanied by a statement about the worst being past, I have my doubts.
Despite what I think is an attempt by the NAR to buoy consumer confidence in the housing market, the result is exactly the opposite, with the added issue of making the NAR seem unwilling to level with the public. Real estate agents already have less statue in the community that used car salesmen and lawyers… spinning bad numbers and trying to pull one over on the public is not a way to fix that.
I get a bit tweaked when the media seems to fail to recognize that there are markets in this country that are doing quite well. I get MORE tweaked when my own trade organization tries to hide reality from our consumers… my clients, customers, friends and even me.
NAR, this is why you are sliding into irrelevance.
Unless otherwise noted, all content of this blog is the property of Lane Bailey, ©2012 Lane Bailey.
I'd love to hear from you...
There are three untruths in this world.
Lies, Damn Lies...and statistics. Stats always lie and can be tweaked and twisted until they make sense for the person presenting the statistics.
ARE YOU CURRENT ON YOU UNION DUES?
Personally, I am NOT proud to be a member of NAR - I just do what I gotta do :(
Why shouldn't the NAR try too? Oooops. I forgot...people would have to be tuning in and listening.
Recently, I went back and watched the NAR vs Cramer clip...deer in headlights.
It's sad but true. That's the problem when they lie, it always comes back to haunt them.
The truth would've set them free1
Bryan - Stats NEVER lie. But, someone can take them out of context and twist them to their own ends... just like almost anything else. But, the premise of your statement is pretty close to true.
Gary - The point of this post is that the NAR didn't do anything to help themselves by trotting out the spin to say over and over that everything was ok, despite it getting worse and worse. The media hasn't reported anything that wasn't true... they may have reported things less than completely (I had a post about that a while back), but it was true. The NAR on the otherhand was making predictions that they were just hoping would prove right.
Randy - Have you done anything about that? Get involved. There are plenty of opportunities to get involved at the local level. In fact, there are plenty at the state level, too...
Tom - I have an issue when a local newspaper concentrates on national stats (it's lazy to just take the wire story for something that has a local component).
Jessica - I don't think most of the media is purposely creating news. Even as a by-product, I would say that there are very few stories that the media has really driven. They have carried a few, but the bust of the housing bubble wasn't of their creation. It had to break. Of course, here in GA we didn't have that sort of bubble that many of the "home markets of the media" experienced. LA, NY, Chicago, etc... where the media types live. They have seen their local markets drop, and so it is a reality for them.
I've nailed the media a few times, too...
Armando - Thank you for hitting the nail on the head.
Just so you know I don't think the media should get a pass, here are the previous posts about the media...
Hello, Media... Are you listening...
Let's blame the media... or not!
Make yourself 'Market Proof' and let the Talking Heads TALK..... while you close deals.
Hi Lane!
Thanks for your thoughts. I'm new at blogging It's not only the content, it's how you present it. Very nice.
I am so excited about the market. In Florida, it is unbelievably cheap.
Kieran Loughman
I have to pay my dues in the next few days. local state and national.....Thanks for letting me know how some of that money is being spent
Hi Lane - I love what Tom Burris wrote - "Make yourself 'Market Proof'"...... that's exactly what I plan on doing as soon as I get back home from Christmas vacation. I'm going to work on putting better systems and plans in place, so that no matter what the media and other bubbleheads say, I'll be doing better and closing sales.
Ann, also proud to be an NAR member.
The NAR and certainly all local Associations are in league with labor unions and other dated and bloated self-serving organizations still around long after their existence is justified. To blatantly distort the state of the market in order to bouy public perception of the market brings ridicule on this industry needlessly!
It is better to be silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt!
The simple truth is that you DO NOT have to belong to a local Association or NAR in order to conduct business as a Real Estate professional.As a past-president of a local Association let me assure you that all of these Associations and NAR have become a social entity and no longer are an advocate for the Real Estate industry. Instead it has become a "fat cat" group struggling to justify it's existence to a public and membership that really does not care. Just keep sending your money and all will be well (yeah, right).
Over 22 years ago, I joined our local board and along with that, NAR. If we Realtors are all honest, most of us would agree with me, that the MAIN reason I joined was to have access to the MLS!
Today, the ONLY reason I remain a member of NAR is because I have to belong to have access to the MLS.
We must all remember, the game for NAR is about increasing the number of members. If NAR was sincerely interested in having the public be educated about the true economic picture, then they would never have allowed the variations in the reporting of statistics from the MLS Boards across the country. A simple example is NAR allows for double reporting of a sale.
We all know that if a home sells for $275,000, there is only one sale and the amount of the sale is $275,000, yet NAR allows each side of the sale made by Realtors to count twice locally, so that no one agent feels left out. Therefore, we now have 2 sales and $550,000 as the amount being claimed.
In many MLS boards a listing is allowed to be put in several times if the area is broken into several sections or areas. In my SC MLS, it is common to see the same house listed 4 times because of the area breakdown. That's absurd! When one house goes pending, all of a sudden there can be 4 pendings for that same house. Luckily, when it is sold, all but one listing is withdrawn and there is one closed.
NAR should demand that ALL MLS Boards report statistics the same way and set guidelines for each MLS to follow that does not allow for duplicate information on the same property.
Because of this faulty reporting system, there will never be a true accounting for what is happening in the nation.
NAR wants and needs new members in order to grow. Bad news does not increase their numbers. Honesty hurts.
We must speak up at our local Boards and seek leaders that want to see our business remain healthy, not fat with inflated numbers, many of which are not producers.
Lane -
NAR is becoming like "the little boy that cried wolf," in reverse. If they continue playing Polyanna, those national stats from NAR we discuss during Listing Presentations will be disregarded as fiction by potential clients.
Last year, at KW Family Reunion, Gary Keller reviewed NAR's recent track record - everyone agreed, it is abysmal! If they are playing cheerleader for their members, the point is wearing thin.
Thanks for venting!
We'll be in Atlanta in February for 2008 KW Family Reunion - see you folks then!
DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO
How DOES the media get the pass to post articles that are inaccurate or exaggerated truths? I guess that's the million dollar question. Honestly, my take on this is that the NAR, in an attempt to help its members, goes to the opposite extreme with their reporting to help deflate the national media's negative spin on our market.
Debe in Charlotte, NC
Boys & girls, WE are NAR, not the folks in Chicago, they are NAR employees.
NAR is a member driven organization, ran and governed by its members. Volunteer leadership (that means unpaid) from the top to the bottom set NAR's policy and make its decisions.
Don't like what's being said; you can do something about it but it will take a committment of your time and energy to make it happen.
What positive thing have you done for your NAR lately?
Lane: Great post. I understand the frustration. Stats are not inherently deceiving, they are just easy to manipulate. The forecasting on NAR's part could very well be considered lackluster (and that's putting it nicely). However, as Jim Lee seems to suggest, would you have preferred the gloom and doom forecast that we receive every day from the national media? I wonder how many folks actually wrote to the NAR to indicate that their forecasts were wholly off-base. hmmmmm.... my guess is no one.
And I quote: Realtors have "less statue (sp) in the community that (sp) used car salesmen and lawyers." How dare you associate us lawyers with used car salesmen and realtors! LOL. ;)
NAR is a self serving trade union that will probably go the way of all trade unions in a free society. Away. I pay my dues because (for now) I must but DO NOT pay the PAC fees. NAR owns Realtor.com which sells our own listings back to us on Realtor.com as "enhanced listings" and promotes itself to sellers forcing us to pay the enhanced fees while Realtor.com itself has become little more than a glossy ad for homes and agents with little "real info" (I call it "house porn").
The NAR and the Media at large have very little credibility when it comes to real estate with savvy consumers. The media is chicken little running around saying the "sky is falling" and NAR is like Don Knotts whistling past the cemetary.
As local agents and Brokers we need to emphasize our honesty, knowledge of the market and educate the community to our best ability (whether that makes money for us this month or NOT). We MUST be 'trusted advisors or we should not call ourselves "professionals".
Hey lane,
I agree with what you are saying. Within the national picture there are local markets and within those markets there are sub markets. The news media, the special interests (Wall Street Journal for example) and others can slice and dice the data to support whatever point they want to make at the time. I really think any analysis other than at the sub market level will always have exceptions and sometimes even contradictions. Great post!
Joe Cline
Coldwell Banker Austin Texas
Yes, lets' talk about the Austin, Tx market - we have (those that work on it and don't buy into the gloom and doom of the media) have had a great year. Sure, we have alot of listings, sure we are up 28% from last year in listings but finally someone had a great plan....UREKA - isn't now a great time to buy? Good prices, lots of inventory to select from....my investors and clients are going nuts. Why doesn't the media pick that up? I am afraid NAR is going to be sorely distanced.....
SO my business plan for next year doesn't reflect any gloom, I am not buying into it!~! Happy Selling - I am!!
Tom - you are right that we all need to work on market-proofing out business. It is a valid strategy. It doesn't fix anything that I've talked about in my post, but it is a good way to build a personal protective layer around your business.
Renee - Sorry, but it isn't USA Today's job, nor CNN or Fox, ABC, NBC or CBS's job to report about Birmingham's market. I will agree that the Atlanta Journal Constitution SHOULD be reporting about local numbers, but the national media has every right to report about national trends... of course I wish they would mention that local markets are doing all sorts of different things.
Graham - I think that after 12 consecutive reports that all begin with "the worst is behind" while 8 of those consecutively revise estimates downward might be a clue that maybe the worst wasn't behind. Perhaps a report that began with "we blew that into the weeds..., oops." Instead, trying to blow powdered sugar up everyone's butt is only a way to show that you can't be a trusted source for info.
Karen - In the battle of wits, we sent in someone unarmed... 'nuf said.
Ryan and Kieran - Thank you.
Michael - It doesn't help when our trade group is seen as unable to predict the boom after the lighting of a fuse.
Ron - That isn't how the money is being spent... whole different post... One that I am not qualified to deliver.
Hugh - It is actually easier for a company to put together a health plan... the employees don't vote. Those same people probably can't name their elected representatives... Congress, NAR... anything.
Diane - Tent cities?
Donna - Thank you and I agree. If it is going to hurt, tell me. I had a nurse (delivering a shot to the butt) say "This isn't going to hurt a bit... brace yourself." I got the message.
It hurt.
Kevin - See what I said to Tom above.
Anne - ditto above and Thank you.
Bob - Did you say that just to get me started on Global Warming? ;^ )
Seriously, if the NAR could put themselves in the same position as the Climate Change crowd, where if it changes it's out fault, and if it doesn't it's because they warned us, then the NAR would be staffed by geniuses.
Bill - The NAR doesn't have to be irrelevant. They seem to want to be. Aside from that I agree with about half of your comment. Still trying to decide which half... ;^ )
Don - Move to Atlanta, two MLSs, and you don't have to join a local association to join either of them. I don't think that the MLSs should be tied to the local associations, but the fact remains that the local trade group got together an made it, that is why they get to own it... I have mixed feelings.
Sean - It WAS a great time to buy for many of those years. When they were still saying it in late 2005, it was self-serving.
Dean - Yes they are... "Flow, flow" (wolf in reverse...)
Debe - I can't say that I have seen any major media report that wasn't truthful. I have seen opinions that I think were based on bad info... or just wrong (like the one that prompted yesterday's post), but reports are a different matter. Don't confuse local market conditions for national reporting... or personal production for local conditions.
Jim - Wow, thank you.
Richard - Should have been stature... sorry. Actually, I think real estate agents rank slightly better than lawyers... and just a touch behind cold sores. My wife works for lawyers. I think that they are great people (ok, some of them). I think that the public feels the same way about real estate agents. Individually we are nice people... collectively (as demonstrated by the NAR, ACLU and ATLA) not so much... it's not the ones we know, it's those other schmucks.
Marston - I agree with you on part of your comments. I am not a unionist, but I also don't trust Congress to not do silly crap... look at the bailouts. Heck, here in GA one of the morons at the state house thought that agents should buy low-flow toilets out of their commissions for all homes they sold.
Joe - We all slice and dice the data. As long as we do it honestly, and maintain our transparency with the truth, it is ok.
Michael - Absolutely.
Heather - You're welcome. It is a great job.
Suzanne - The media should pick it up... in Austin. But, people in _____, __ that are down by 24% this year don't care what is happening in Austin. Local media should report local conditions framed by national conditions.
Thank you all. I appreciate EVERY comment, whether it agrees with my post or not. Thank you for taking the time to pass along your thoughts.
Lane: There is no confusion here--except that I should have written 'articles' rather than 'reporting' for the NAR! Our numbers in Charlotte speak for themselves and I think that oftentimes, the general public confuses the national, over-exaggerated articles on the market with our local market.
Debe in Charlotte, NC
I am right with you on this one. I was just commenting on another blog today about how far off base NAR is in their predictions. I wonder who makes the ultimate decisions to be downright full of it when making these kind of predictions. Thanks for the post.
Debe - Here we can partially agree. I think that the public isn't exposed, even by local media, to local conditions, but rather just told of the national trends. Of course, I got roundly bashed by some agents here in Atlanta when I peed in their Wheaties by talking about actual numbers that weren't as favorable as they wanted them to be.
Andrew - I think balance is the key. To say it's a great market... no matter what... all of the time... is disingenuous. It can be spun that way. Some markets are good for buyers, others for sellers... But it always sucks for some, and rocks for others.
Cindy - Don't ignore. your clients know what is being said, and you need to be able to speak to those fears that may arise.
Russ - There used to be a game on the internet call acrophobia. it was cool. But, the comment didn't help... and I think it was too short for 25 points.
Karl - I wish I knew. They would start their eyes rolling just at the sight of my email address... their delete finger would twitch...
I was so happy when the local media here finally got the hint that our market here isn't crashing and has been going up every month and never has gone backwards. They even said it this way "Despite our past reports how bad the market is, it seems we were wrong and Portland has been bucking the trend"
No kidding, the same things we agents have been telling you for two years now! Thanks for paying attention finally. Do you have a home on the market or something?
Renee - And as I think most of us know, no matter what level market we talk about, there are spots inside of it that are vastly different... So, how is the high-rise market there?
Todd - You might actually be closer than you think. I ran across someone that was in the media, and much of their perception was based on the house next door.
Frank - I think that back in 2005, when the market was rocking, the NAR should have been saying "things are getting out of hand... we need to slow down and examine what we are doing." That would have built an incredible amount of consumer credibility... instead we get "prices will NEVER go down... spend, baby, spend." Now that the market has slowed, they would be better off saying "it's a different market, and those in it for the long haul will remain in a good position. Short term buying is risky now... there might be further erosion of some markets."
Honesty brings credibility.
Tommy - Aside from getting your links on to a reasonably popular post, did this have anything to add? This would be comment spam. I'll probably delete the comment later...
Wishing You HAPPY HOLIDAYS and Best Wishes for A GREAT YEAR 2008.
Tommy New York Certified Home Inspector Long Island NY Nassau/Suffolk/Queens Home Inspections
Nevermind, I'm reporting it as spam now, but thought I'd let everyone else that reads that reads this know what I was talking about.
Kathy - I have some empathy for those trying to figure out the market. But, as a good example, I just looked at the 2008 outlook for commercial sectors. They are calling for flat growth, even though it is obvious in most markets that the commercial sector is overbuilt and vacancy rates are going up... they go so far as to say so. But, instead of saying we need caution or something to that effect... they say it isn't bad... I don't concentrate on commercial properties, but I know a few people that do, and they think it is going to be ugly in the commercial sector next year...
I know that the folks at NAR are smart enough to figure it out.