Looking Out From the Garage: I'm Always Up For a Good Surprise..

I'm Always Up For a Good Surprise..

2005 29 Jan - Atlanta Ice Storm - Spring St. (...
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I was working over the market data for Gwinnett County, GA... outside of Atlanta.  And the numbers were a bit surprising.  They were good... Almost across the board...

Why am I not excited?  I want to be excited.  I want to shout to the world that Gwinnett County's real estate market has turned.

But I'm skeptical...

Generally, December has to lowest number of listings that we are going to see throughout the year.  Seldom will we see an increase in listings... in fact, only in the high end (where listings are often on the market over a year) do we see around the same number of listings in December as in November or January.

But this year, there was a dramatic dip in November, related to October.  There was just as dramatic of an uptick for December , compared to November.

So, was November an anomaly or was December the odd duck?


2005 29 Jan - Atlanta Ice Storm - North Ave Br...
Image via Wikipedia

My honest guess is that December is the odd one out.  Looking at the last several month, it seems obvious.  Here are the sales percentages vs the same month in 2009. Keep in mind, this is after the tax credit expired.

  • August - Down 11.5%
  • September - Down 22.6%
  • October - Down 24.0%
  • November - Down 27.3%
  • December - Down 4.0%

Obviously, that is quite strong.  But is real?  It will take a while to figure out.  We'll have a better idea in a month or so, when the January numbers solidify, but we will still be looking at an "unstimulated" market compared to the market last year which was paying a $8,000 Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers, and $6,500 for Existing Home Buyers.  So, it will be September or October before we really can compare 2010 numbers with 2011 numbers and see an honest comparison.

I'm Hopeful...

I certainly have reservations.  I am mentally preparing for a boomerang in January numbers.  But I remain hopeful.  I'm looking forward to the January reports, which will come out starting in mid-February.

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Comment balloon 0 commentsLane Bailey • January 13 2011 02:10PM