I have been kind of expecting this, but of course it will take a couple of months to confirm…
The Tax Credit did not kick the Gwinnett Market into gear…
Instead, its expiration killed sales. Looking over the last few months of sales we see that for 2010, sales were (compared to 2009):
- January – down 10.9%
- February – up 1.7%
- March – up 10.1%
- April – up 14.1%
- May – up 17.3%
- June – down 0.8%
- July – down 26.2%
As we look over these numbers, there are a few things to keep in mind… To start with, the July numbers will likely get a little better. Although sales are supposed to be reported within 48 hours of closing, there are always stragglers that take a few weeks to make it into the reports. Contracts had to be written by April 30th, and sales here usually only take 30-45 days to close. That would be why sales were up in May, but not in June… those sales were likely closed. I didn’t see a lot of buyers playing chicken with the contract dates.
All isn’t doom and gloom… Inventories are down a bit from last year. This is helping to keep the absorption rates at a reasonable level. But they are still decelerating.
Look for specific reports over the next couple of weeks for Lilburn, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Suwanee, Sugar Hill, Buford and Norcross.
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Lane - These trends are very similar to Nashville, and like you, I expect them to get a little better soon, and then a lot better when we fire Pelosi.