Looking Out From the Garage

Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

I have been pulling Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Data, and I'm not done with it yet.  But, I have been seeing a few things.

• Listings are down markedly from where they would normally be.  This can be either a positive or negative, depending on your outlook.
  • On the Plus Side, fewer listings means that Absorption Rates are better.  There is less inventory to get sold... it tilts the table back toward sellers.  It has been largely tilted toward buyers for quite a while.
  • On the Minus Side, it shows that there is pessimism in the market on the side of sellers.  They aren't confident about the market.  That lack of confidence has carried over to buyers... sales are also slowing.
• Sales are down... like I just mentioned.  Even though Absorption Rates make the market look better... the sales just aren't there.
• Results are mixed.  There are a few cities that are doing well... and there are a few price segments that are doing quite well.  Others are VERY weak.

Related articles

• Norcross, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
• Let's take a break from Market Reports in Gwinnett County, GA (lanebailey.com)

I love watching the news... but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe. I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion. Yep... a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it's not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood. It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city. Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends. In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends. What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind. That's about it.

Here locally, we look at things like...

• changing employment statistics
• companies relocating into or out of the area
• school performance and trends
• tax burdens
• quality of local governmental services
• proximity to recreation and entertainment
• ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another. A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue. It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation. If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools. The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average. But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action. We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region... and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn't have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

Explaining Market Reports on LaneBailey.com

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for August wasn't very solid until the beginning of October.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute...

So, let's get to the numbers and try to get a handle on what they mean.

At the end of August, 2010, there were 6,473 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As expected, there has been a general upward trend in the number of listings all year, but that is slowing... again, as expected.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 617 sales in August.  This was down from 697 sales for August, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 9.7 months of inventory.  Which shows an increase since June.  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For August, it represented 4,022 homes listed.  There were 436 sales during that period.  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 8.8 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more normal June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for August were down from 487 in August, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, things are different.  There were 1,838 listings county-wide.  Oddly, the Absorption Rate, currently at about 11.1 months of inventory, has been dropping since March.  In most other segments it has been rising... getting worse.  And while sales are down, listings are down more, which is driving the absorption rate down.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 141 for 2010 v 172 for 2009.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there are 354 listings in Gwinnett County and 25 sales for August, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate has been basically dropping since March, 2010.  Currently it indicates about 23 months of inventory.  This time it is a result of strong sales.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are steady v last year.  For August, 2009, there were 27 sales.  While 23 months of inventory isn't anything to bank on, at least it is dropping.

Here is a real anomaly.  In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates only 10 months of inventory.  That rate has been dropping since February.  In fact, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For August, there were 97 listings in this price range.  There were 7 sales... up from 6 in August, 2009.  Honestly, I was really surprised to see these numbers at this level...

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 54 active listings and 3 sales for August, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 45 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  Sales may be rebounding here, though.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 108 listings and 5 sales for August, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 25 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year.  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and "one-offs".

I'm looking forward to seeing the sales data for September soon.

Related articles

• Norcross, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report - August, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Duluth, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Effective on March 1st, the issue between Gwinnett and 15 of its cities has been upgraded by the State of Georgia.  The 15 cities and Gwinnett are now listed with the state as No Longer Qualified Local Governments.

The cities are: Auburn , Berkeley Lake, Buford, Dacula, Duluth, Grayson, Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Loganville, Norcross, Rest Haven, Snellville, Sugar Hill, Suwanee and Braselton.

At issue are parallel services being offered by Gwinnett County and the individual cities.  Things like police services...  Several of the cities have local police departments, but Gwinnett County Police (one of the largest departments in the state) patrols the same areas.

In effect, the various cities and the county need to come to agreement on exactly who is going to provide which services in which locations.  And they need to do it quickly.  While the cities and the county are on this list, none are eligible to receive state grants, permits or loans.  Stimulus money could be held up or lost if there is a continued stalemate between the parties.

Hopefully they will be able to get this worked out prior to the end of the month and we can be restored before April.

Image by  lane.bailey via Flickr

There are still some new home developments going up around Gwinnett County, GA.  Even though we keep hearing on the TV and radio that new construction has all but stalled, it hasn’t completely stopped.

And, December is traditionally the slowest month of the year for homes to go under contract (January is the slowest for closings…).  So, there are a number of builders that are offering incentives for buyers during this time of year.

Talk about a Christmas present!!!

Regardless of what holiday you might be celebrating this time of year… or even if you aren’t celebrating anything except the great sales, there are great deals to be had all over Gwinnett.

In Buford, there is a development that has cut prices on their standing inventory (homes that are ready to go…).

• 3BR/2BA/Finished Bonus Room/Full Basement – $269,900 $219,900
• 3BR/2BA/Hardwoods/Granite & Tile – $219,900 $184,900
• 3BR/2BA/Dining Room/Gas Fireplace – $210,900 $179,900

Another builder, with several developments around Gwinnett, including one in Lilburn, has put up a promotion to buy down rates to 2.78% (first year, 3.78% second year and 4.78% for the remainder of the loan).  The also offer a discount for active duty military, school teachers and emergency workers of 2% off the price of their homes.

Also in Buford there is a developer closing out that last two homes for sale.  One is a Model Home.

• 4BR/3.5BA/Model Home/Balcony – $179,900
• 5BR/3.5BA/Balcony/Family Room – $179,900

In Peachtree Corners, an upscale development is offering attractive pricing on their luxury homes… starting in the $700k’s.

In Norcross there is a townhome development that is offering $0 Move-ins.  Nothing Down.  Zero Closing Costs.  Zero PMI.  Closings must happen before March 2010.  These are townhomes priced from the $190k’s, with finished basements, 2 car garages, vaulted ceilings and “creative interiors”.

*** All properties are subject to pre-sale.  There aren’t my listings, so I don’t know what properties might be under contract.  Information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.  I would be happy to represent you as a buyer’s agent.  This service does NOT cost you as a buyer.  Aside from when working as a buyer’s agent, I have no financial interest in any of these properties.  If operating as a buyer’s agent, I work in the buyer’s interest, and not for the builder.  Contains no sugar…***

from LaneBailey.com

I thought I might pass along some words from some of my clients. 

Mike needed a house with a big garage.  In addition to enjoying woodworking, Mike has a 4x4 habit... and a sports car.  So, the normal 2 car garage wasn't going to cut it.  And that is before mention of Mike's son... also an avid off-roader.  We were looking for homes with 4+ car garages, or homes that could easily accomodate a 4+ car garage.  We had a good start, but the short-sale didn't come through in time.  Getting back into search mode yielded a home that met almost every criteria.  A couple of changes and the home was perfect. 

Terri was in search of room for the long arm machine.  As a quilting enthusiast, it was the center of her search.  She had a GIANT sewing machine that needed a GIANT room to live.  It also needed to be adjacent to storage (for the fabrics) and hopefully have easy access to the outside world.  Bringing bolts of fabric through the house all of the time wasn't high on the priority list.  We ran across a few bonus rooms that would fit most of the bill... and then we found the perfect house.  The rest of the house was pretty cool, too. 

I like working with cool people with interesting hobbies.  I have a Jeep habit, and have also spent a lot of time playing with sports cars.  Of course, I have also had a few other hobbies, too. 

Let me help you find that cool and unique home that fits your lifestyle. 

Here in Gwinnett County, GA, it is time for the kids to get back to school.  In fact, Monday morning, August 11th, will be the first day back for Gwinnett County students. 

Kids will be walking to school in some areas, waiting for school buses in other areas, and teenage drivers will be out in force.  Each present their own challenges... 

Aside from the extra care we all need to take to keep the kids safe as they travel to school, we also need to remember that "Back To School" means more traffic and longer drive times... especially for the first few weeks of school.  Of course the buses add traffic, as well as all of the parents dropping kids at school, but it seems that each year around this time the rest of the traffic gets crazy as well. 

Relax, allow some extra time and help keep everyone safer.

And, we will be sending our oldest son off to Kindergarten tomorrow...

In hockey, among the tough guys, there is a common call.  When they are getting ready to throw down, they often say "Come and Get it"...  Dan Sullivan is a tough guy.  As he jokingly says, he earns his money in the penalty box.  But that is only the Dan Sullivan that the fans see on the ice. 

There is another side to Dan...  When he was a kid, he couldn't afford to go to formal hockey camps.  And he wanted to do something about that for youngsters that were coming up now. So, five years ago he started the Come And Get It Hockey Camp.

Dan wonders if his path would be the same if he had been able to go to a lot of camps as a youngster.  Maybe he would be known for his skating and shooting prowess rather than as the guy that makes sure nobody takes a cheap shot at his teammates. 

Hockey camps aren't anything new.  The Duluth Ice Forum, in Duluth, GA, hosts several each summer.  But Dan's camp is a little different.  He takes kids of all ages and skill levels.  He also doesn't care if kids can't afford it... he finds ways to help them come to camp.  There are sponsors that give away scholarships and options for reduced fees.  As long as the ice fees and food are covered, he is happy with it.  

And there is something else different.  He knows that most parents have to work, so he structures the camp differently.  Kids can be dropped off at 7:30 in the morning and picked up as late as 5:00 in the afternoon.  Many camps are only half a day. 

And the kids are busy during that time...  The camp officially starts around 9:00 with an hour of power skating.  The kids then take off the gear and grab a snack.  They have off-ice activities (classroom for the older kids, games for the youger ones) until they dress in for the 11:30 to 12:30 stick handling session.  After theat, they grab lunch and then work on off-ice physical conditioning... and the little kids watch a movie for part of the time.  Finally, there is a scrimmage each day from 3:00 to 4:00.  That is three hours of ice time, two hours of off-ice training and some down-time. 

At the last camp, the number of skaters had swelled so much that they had to be split into two groups.  Dan bought some more ice time and adjusted the schedule so that all of the kids got more ice time.  The coaches worked double shifts on the ice to make sure the kids got a great experience. 

But there is something else cool about the camp... the other instructors.  It isn't about the money for the the other coaches, either.  In fact, these guys fly to Atlanta from all over North America to help with the camp.  And they basically volunteer their time.  Some play in the ECHL (East Coast Hockey League), some on the NHL.  Others are upcomong players that are under contract to NHL teams.  A couple have retired from professional hockey.  Aside from the Gwinnett Gladiators, Dan's team, the Atlanta Thrashers, Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres were all represented.  There were also a couple of Ontario Hockey League (OHL) teams represented as well. 

Coach Dan, Coach Turtle, Coach Josh and the others love working and playing with the kids.  It really shows.  The kids are worn out every day and ready to go back the next day. 

But there is one last thing...  There is a code of conduct.  Aside from being required to listen to the coaches and act respectably, there is another layer.  The big kids are expected to help the smaller kids.  they help get them dressed out, they encourage them on the ice and off.  They also are expected to act as good examples.  And while the word "dude" is over-used in the locker room, other words and concepts that the little guys don't need in their heads are not.  And when the 5 year olds refer to the 16 years olds as "teammates", we know that the philosophy is successful. 

The Come And Get It Hockey Camp has been on the front page of the Gwinnett Daily Post.  There are multiple mentions of the camp on the Gwinnett Gladiators' website as well.  When Dan began the camp in Augusta, the NBC affiliate there did a story about it. 

Planning will begin shortly for next year's camp schedule.  If you would like to bring the Come And Get It Hockey Camp to a rink near you, or sponsor the camp, let me know and I will pass word to Dan and his staff wife.

Not too far from Lilburn is Discover Mills.  It sits in a triangle bounded by I-85, GA120 and Sugarloaf Parkway.  And of course the firs tthink one thinks of when talking about a mall is shopping...  But honestly, there are a lot more fun things to do there. It is a hidden gem in Gwinnett County... hidden in plain site.

Let's look at some of the cool things that we can do "at the mall"...

• Let's go racing...

Really.  Slingshot Speedway has the longest permanent indoor slot car track in the country.  For $3-$5 (speed costs money, how fast do you want to go?) you can take on up to 5 other drivers on the track... bring your own car, buy a new car or just rent... 

• Somebody need to be shot...

With an Airsoft weapon...  At Goldeagle.  They have a few thousand square feet dedication to Airsoft combat. Kind of like paintball... without the paint.  I wasn't able to get the pricing, but it would be WAY less that getting something from Prada.

• Be a Builder...

Ok, this IS  a store... but my son has spent hours building without actually purchasing anything.  The Lego Store has a great build area for kids.  I wander the store and he builds stuff.  My wife takes away my credit cards before I go in or I would have the Ferrari model... 

• Ticket to Ride...

Train or Carousel... Spiderman Jump or simulator?  You pick...  They are all there, and they don't cost THAT much... 

• Be an Extreme Sportsman...

Get you bike vertical.... or your skateboard.  Spaha/Woodward Skate Park is several thousand square feet of ramps, half pipes and street skating...  And even if you aren't going to get extreme, it can be fun to watch... and free...  And pretty cool or dry on a hot or rainy day. 

Of course there is a lot more that you can do there, from making pottery (great gift for Grandmas...) to glow in the dark mini-golf, movies and food... and even a Tournament (Medival Times is in the mall...). 

Normally, we think of shopping at the mall, but it can actually be entertaining.  Whether it is walking, people watching or engaging in some of the unique offerings, Discover Mills offers some great fun opportunities in central Gwinnett County, near Lawrenceville, Lilburn, Duluth, Suwanee and several other areas in the county.

If you are going to be selling your home, it is very important to know what is happening in your own neighborhood, as it is happening.  A CMA (Comparative or Competitive Market Analysis) is a great way to get a snapshot of the market. 

But there is a better way...

A snapshot is a nice tool, but until it has a context, it doesn't show where the subject is going.  It is better to use a stream of data over time.  A good agent, working in a specific area, like Lilburn, GA, can provide the context for a CMA.  However, there is a more effective way to "bring it home." 

Listing and Sales Updates...

That's right...  I can set you up to monitor all of the new listings and sales in your neighborhood automatically.  As soon as they are entered, you would recieve notice of the transaction.  Everything is tracked on your own private website... you can add notes and sort the properties. 

Like a video instead of just a photo...

I love photos.  But, they often don't tell the picture.  In some cases we can infer what is happening before and after the moment of the picture, but in others the action is unclear. 

Get the market reality.  Give me a call or shoot me an email today.  There is no cost nor obligation.  Of course I'd like to be the agent that helps you sell your home, but if you choose someone else, that is your choice.  I want to make sure that sellers in Lilburn know the real value of their property.

from LilburnDwellings.com