Looking Out From the Garage

Image via Wikipedia

I was working over the market data for Gwinnett County, GA... outside of Atlanta.  And the numbers were a bit surprising.  They were good... Almost across the board...

Why am I not excited?  I want to be excited.  I want to shout to the world that Gwinnett County's real estate market has turned.

But I'm skeptical...

Generally, December has to lowest number of listings that we are going to see throughout the year.  Seldom will we see an increase in listings... in fact, only in the high end (where listings are often on the market over a year) do we see around the same number of listings in December as in November or January.

But this year, there was a dramatic dip in November, related to October.  There was just as dramatic of an uptick for December , compared to November.

So, was November an anomaly or was December the odd duck?

Image via Wikipedia

My honest guess is that December is the odd one out.  Looking at the last several month, it seems obvious.  Here are the sales percentages vs the same month in 2009. Keep in mind, this is after the tax credit expired.

• August - Down 11.5%
• September - Down 22.6%
• October - Down 24.0%
• November - Down 27.3%
• December - Down 4.0%

Obviously, that is quite strong.  But is real?  It will take a while to figure out.  We'll have a better idea in a month or so, when the January numbers solidify, but we will still be looking at an "unstimulated" market compared to the market last year which was paying a $8,000 Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers, and $6,500 for Existing Home Buyers.  So, it will be September or October before we really can compare 2010 numbers with 2011 numbers and see an honest comparison.

I'm Hopeful...

I certainly have reservations.  I am mentally preparing for a boomerang in January numbers.  But I remain hopeful.  I'm looking forward to the January reports, which will come out starting in mid-February.

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County Market Preview (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... November, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lane's Prognostications for 2011... (lanebailey.com)

Market Predictions on LaneBailey.com

Image via Wikipedia

Here are the final numbers for Gwinnett County Home sales for November, 2010.

At the end of November, 2010, there were 6,017 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As usual, we have a drop off in listings during the Holiday Season.  November listings were down from October.  December also showed a decrease.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 488 sales in November.  This was down from 716 sales for November, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 11.2 months of inventory, which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn't an increase that is good).  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For November, it represented 3,943 homes listed.  There were 231 sales during that period.  So, active listings went up (bad) and sales were WAY down (very bad).  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 11 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more "market normal" June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for October were down from 496 in November, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,537 listings county-wide.  The Absorption Rate, currently at about 15.5 months of inventory, has been rising since August.  And while sales are down, listings are down, too.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 69 for 2010 v 171 for 2009.  In effect, while there are less than half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a third of the sales.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 320 listings in Gwinnett County and 8 sales for November, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales in both October and November.  Currently it indicates about 45.7 months of inventory.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year.  For November, 2009, there were 34 sales.

In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 72 months of inventory.  That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then).  But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For November, there were 72 listings in this price range.  There was 1 sale... down from 9 in November, 2009.

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 2 sales for November, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 82 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate... which isn't good.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 96 listings and 1 sale for November, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 36 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year (when there were 3 sales...).  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and "one-offs".

I'm looking forward to seeing the sales data for December soon.  It will take quite a while before we get out of comparing to numbers that were skewed by government subsidies and stimulus.

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for November wasn't very solid until the beginning of January.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute...

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lilburndwellings.com)

Gwinnett County Market Report from LaneBailey.com

Image via Wikipedia

I was just online grabbing a few numbers for the upcoming market reports for Gwinnett County, GA.  Starting around 12/16/10, we will rolling out the reports for Lilburn, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Suwanee, Sugar Hill, Buford and Norcross, GA.  The reports are pretty in-depth.  They will include:

• Reports broken out by price segment
  • Under $200k
  • $200k-$400k
  • $400k-$600k
  • $600k-$800k
  • $800k-$1m
  • Over $1m
  • Overall Market
• Each locality includes the Absorption Rate for each price segment
• Each segment includes analysis regarding acceleration/deceleration and what factors may be affecting that segment
• New this month, each price/location will be linked to the search for properties meeting those criteria

Preview...

It isn't pretty...  Things generally slow down this time of year, and last year was a strong year because of the tax credits that had been scheduled to end around this time (before being extended).  Those things combined to make November look pretty bad.  We'll be going in-depth starting next week.

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Gwinnett County Market Report from LaneBailey.com

Image via Wikipedia

I have been running Gwinnett County Market stats for the last couple of hours.  And the results are interesting, if not pretty...

For the county-wide numbers, I don't have the most accurate numbers until a full month has passed.  That means that I have numbers for October, but they accurate numbers I have are for September.  The October numbers will likely change about a week into December.

I will have a full report with the segments broken out for Thursday.  But here are a couple of highlights...

• Sales were down 22% for September... as much as 29% for October (year over year).
• Pending sales (contracts, usually closed about 30-45 days later) were down 24% for Sept. and as much as 27% for Oct (year over year).
• Listings were up 3.3% for September (bad news for sellers) and look to be down 3.3% for October (year over year).
• Under $200k is slightly picking up steam... everything else is slowing... (absorption rates for October).
• But sales are still actually down, year over year, for under $200k in Oct... but listings are down even more.

Related articles

• We interupt this post to... (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County, GA, Market Report, August 2010 (lanebailey.com)

from LaneBailey.com