I ask myself all of the time... 

• How good are my market reports? 
• Are they compelling? 
• Why should a buyer or seller read MY market report instead of one of the hundreds of other reports out there?  
• Am I providing value? 
• What do consumers want in a market report? 

I am specifically NOT leaving a link to one of my market reports in order for everyone to grade it.  Rather, I would love to hear about what YOU think makes a great market report... whether you are an agent, broker, consumer or vendor. 

What makes a great market report?

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , December, 2010 indicate that there are 241 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.7 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July, but inventories have been rising, and along with it, the number of months of inventory (that is the wrong way...)

for Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 168 listings, with under 9.7 months supply.  Sales are also about 3x of the level last year, 25 v 8 last December.  But, for the last three months, that only puts sales up by 3 v last year.  And this segment is doing WAY better than the next one up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 63 listings for sale, and about 17.2 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It had a slight bump in November, but drove off a cliff in December.  There were only 3 sales v 11 last year.  In fact, for the last three months, there were only 11 sales v 27 last year.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 36 months, but with 1 sale in the last 6 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment this year.  Last year there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 18 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Related articles

• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Sugar Hill Market Reports on LaneBailey.com

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2010 indicate that there are 548 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.8 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 165 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 9.9 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed...  This is one of the rare segments that actually bumped in November, rather than December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 249 listings for sale, and 9 months of supply.  Sales for December 2010 were 25 compared with 22 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but with the decrease in listings, leading to an improvement in the Absorption Rate.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.  November continued the (poor) trend with 27 sales v 41 last year.

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From $400k to $600k, there are 71 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 19.4 months.  There were 4 sales this year... dwarfed by the 7 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 11 sales this year and 24 for the same period last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 3...  For the sale time last year, the sales were 7.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 3+ years of inventory on the market.  There has only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April, May and December).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Oct-Dec this year and 2 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories...  There were 37 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Related articles

• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Suwanee Market Report on Lane Bailey.com

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Yahoo News recently published an article titled "The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers".  (I know, I said 10... they say 8, but they mentioned that Colorado and South Carolina barely missed inclusion).

Georgia ranked #6...

I'll cut to the chase and give you the list.  Check out the article for the details on each state...

1. Michigan
2. Nevada
3. Arizona
4. California
5. Illinois
6. Georgia
7. Oregon
8. Florida

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Georgia made it onto the list because of the following statistics...

• 2010 Foreclosures: 3.25% (6th Worst)
• Unemployment: 10% (9th Worst)
• Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -82.29% (2nd Worst)

Of course, I want to put my spin on these things...

There is no getting around the foreclosures.  As a real estate agent, I see loads of them listed in the local MLS (Multiple Listing Service), as well as properties that are foreclosed, but not yet listed.  I also see the properties that are on their way to foreclosure... short sales, neglected homes, etc.  They are seriously impacting home values across the state.

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Unemployment is the big one.  As employment increases, pressure on the housing market decreases.  Simply put, buyers are reluctant to buy when they aren't feeling secure in their employment future.  There are some rumblings that could bring an improvement to the employment rate... FedEx is building a new Distribution Center in Norcross (Gwinnett County) that will be bringing a good number of jobs to the area over the next 18 months (it is scheduled to open in Sept. 2012).  While the 200 people that will work in the facility will be largely from other FedEx facilities, there will be jobs from the construction of the 215,000sf facility.  There may be future jobs added as well.  Kia Motors has a production facility in the state that is expanding.  There are other companies, large and small, that are opening or expanding operations in Georgia, as well.

The decrease in building permits is another mattehttp://activerain.com/action/blogs_admin/writer entirely.  I see it as a backward looking indicator.  I also see a decrease in construction starts as positive news for inventory already on the market.  And in the last couple of years, we have seen the inventories decrease by half...  If there is already an over-supply, more building won't help that.  And we have an oversupply.

The bottom line, for me, is that the article contains a mixed bag for Georgia.  There is NO question that the market here has been damaged, but at the same time, there may be rays of hope hiding in the tunnel.

Related articles

• The Eight States Running Out Of Homebuyers (247wallst.com)
• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... November, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lane's Prognostications for 2011... (lanebailey.com)
• 2011 Could Be The Worst Year In The History Of Real Estate (realestateradiousa.com)

Georgia's Real Estate Outlook on LaneBailey.com

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Market stats for Lilburn, December, 2010, indicates that there are 379 properties on the market (as of December 31st). Overall, there is about a 10.9 month supply of properties.  Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County.  The Absorption Rates had been getting worse since August, but December clocked an improvement from 11.8 months of inventory in November.  In March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 244 listings, with about an 8.0 month supply.  This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October.  Sales were drastically higher than December 2009 (31 v 22).  Oddly, the Absorption Rate is exactly the same as a year ago.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 114 listings for sale, and about 28.5 months of supply. This segment has been quite weak for months.  Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 each on November and October didn't help.  For comparison, in 2009 there were 18 sales in October, 9 in November and 7 in December.  The expected end of the tax credit last year started pushing sales down in Nov. 2009.  While the Absorption Rate got slightly better compared to last month, the change was marginal.

From $400k to $600k, there are 16 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 48 months. There  were no sales in this segment in May, June, July, October or December this year.  There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall.  With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  There has been one sale in the last five months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August).  One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County.  It was incorporated in 1910.  Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Related articles

• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Interesting Homes Around Lilburn GA (lanebailey.com)
• There is a new City Hall coming to Lilburn, GA... (lilburndwellings.com)
• Flashback Friday... Where in the World is Lilburn? (gwinnettgarageguy.com)

Lilburn Market Data on LaneBailey.com

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I was working over the market data for Gwinnett County, GA... outside of Atlanta.  And the numbers were a bit surprising.  They were good... Almost across the board...

Why am I not excited?  I want to be excited.  I want to shout to the world that Gwinnett County's real estate market has turned.

But I'm skeptical...

Generally, December has to lowest number of listings that we are going to see throughout the year.  Seldom will we see an increase in listings... in fact, only in the high end (where listings are often on the market over a year) do we see around the same number of listings in December as in November or January.

But this year, there was a dramatic dip in November, related to October.  There was just as dramatic of an uptick for December , compared to November.

So, was November an anomaly or was December the odd duck?

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My honest guess is that December is the odd one out.  Looking at the last several month, it seems obvious.  Here are the sales percentages vs the same month in 2009. Keep in mind, this is after the tax credit expired.

• August - Down 11.5%
• September - Down 22.6%
• October - Down 24.0%
• November - Down 27.3%
• December - Down 4.0%

Obviously, that is quite strong.  But is real?  It will take a while to figure out.  We'll have a better idea in a month or so, when the January numbers solidify, but we will still be looking at an "unstimulated" market compared to the market last year which was paying a $8,000 Tax Credit for First Time Home Buyers, and $6,500 for Existing Home Buyers.  So, it will be September or October before we really can compare 2010 numbers with 2011 numbers and see an honest comparison.

I'm Hopeful...

I certainly have reservations.  I am mentally preparing for a boomerang in January numbers.  But I remain hopeful.  I'm looking forward to the January reports, which will come out starting in mid-February.

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County Market Preview (lanebailey.com)
• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... November, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lane's Prognostications for 2011... (lanebailey.com)

Market Predictions on LaneBailey.com

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Here are the final numbers for Gwinnett County Home sales for November, 2010.

At the end of November, 2010, there were 6,017 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As usual, we have a drop off in listings during the Holiday Season.  November listings were down from October.  December also showed a decrease.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 488 sales in November.  This was down from 716 sales for November, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 11.2 months of inventory, which has been steadily increasing since June (this isn't an increase that is good).  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For November, it represented 3,943 homes listed.  There were 231 sales during that period.  So, active listings went up (bad) and sales were WAY down (very bad).  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 11 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more "market normal" June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for October were down from 496 in November, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, there were 1,537 listings county-wide.  The Absorption Rate, currently at about 15.5 months of inventory, has been rising since August.  And while sales are down, listings are down, too.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 69 for 2010 v 171 for 2009.  In effect, while there are less than half of the listings of the next lower market segment, there are barely more than a third of the sales.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there were 320 listings in Gwinnett County and 8 sales for November, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate had been basically dropping since March, 2010, but jumped up significantly based on weak sales in both October and November.  Currently it indicates about 45.7 months of inventory.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are abysmal v last year.  For November, 2009, there were 34 sales.

In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates 72 months of inventory.  That rate has been rising since July (it was 10 months, then).  But, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For November, there were 72 listings in this price range.  There was 1 sale... down from 9 in November, 2009.

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 49 active listings and 2 sales for November, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 82 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  But, there is an upward trend in the absorption rate... which isn't good.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 96 listings and 1 sale for November, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 36 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year (when there were 3 sales...).  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and "one-offs".

I'm looking forward to seeing the sales data for December soon.  It will take quite a while before we get out of comparing to numbers that were skewed by government subsidies and stimulus.

You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for November wasn't very solid until the beginning of January.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute...

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lilburndwellings.com)

Gwinnett County Market Report from LaneBailey.com

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We'll see how well I peg this.

Lane's Predictions for 2011...

Looking back over the last year or two in real estate market reports, there are a few things that have been jumping out at me.

• For over two years I have been hearing about the millions of homes in "Shadow Inventory".  These are properties in the foreclosure process, or already foreclosed, that the banks are basically sitting on, waiting until "the market improves" before releasing them into the market.  I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory. It isn't that there isn't a shadow inventory, but that we have dropped from over 10,000 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA to around 6,000.  Even for the overall Atlanta Metro area, we have gone from 120,000 homes to under 70,000.
• The federal government has been borrowing unheard of amounts of money for the last few years.  Much of it has come from China and other foreign investors... but the deficit spending is not coming to an end, while the depth of the investment pool is...  Despite the best attempts of the Fed, Interest Rates ARE going to rise. Currently we are seeing rates under 5%.  I expect that we will be looking at closer to 7% by the end of the year.
• Looking at the market reports, there are a few things that are VERY obvious.
  • Government Stimulus for the Housing Market only provides a temporary bump... and then it is worse than it was before, but there will be another wave of government intervention I hope I am wrong on this one).
  • The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery... and that will continue. We won't really know it until around September or October because it will be masked by the tax credits in 2010.
  • Meanwhile, it has been a rough ride for the luxury market.  And I don't think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k). There is a lot of downward pressure on this segment, and while there are some signs of strength, the best that segment can hope for is stagnation.
  • The "Near Luxury" segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed. It is also the market to watch for signs of permanent recovery.  I know that I will be watching the $200k-$400k and $400k-$600k segments to try to glean the health of the overall market.
• I fully believe that unemployment (or rather employment) is at the center of the struggle in the Housing Market, and not the other way around.  Until the Unemployment rate drops, housing cannot really recover.  I don't see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011. In fact, unless something changes radically, I don't think it will even get that close (maybe 9.3%).

I'll probably have a few more predictions before long...

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Atlanta property taxes: Sales of foreclosures will help home values recover (ajc.com)
• Housing market's bumpy ride isn't over (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

2011 Real Estate Predictions from LaneBailey.com

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I was just online grabbing a few numbers for the upcoming market reports for Gwinnett County, GA.  Starting around 12/16/10, we will rolling out the reports for Lilburn, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Suwanee, Sugar Hill, Buford and Norcross, GA.  The reports are pretty in-depth.  They will include:

• Reports broken out by price segment
  • Under $200k
  • $200k-$400k
  • $400k-$600k
  • $600k-$800k
  • $800k-$1m
  • Over $1m
  • Overall Market
• Each locality includes the Absorption Rate for each price segment
• Each segment includes analysis regarding acceleration/deceleration and what factors may be affecting that segment
• New this month, each price/location will be linked to the search for properties meeting those criteria

Preview...

It isn't pretty...  Things generally slow down this time of year, and last year was a strong year because of the tax credits that had been scheduled to end around this time (before being extended).  Those things combined to make November look pretty bad.  We'll be going in-depth starting next week.

Related articles

• Gwinnett County GA Overall Market Report... October, 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Gwinnett County Market Report from LaneBailey.com

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Listening to the NAR (National Association of Realtors®, it is ALWAYS the right time to buy.  If the market is going up, they pound the "buy the rising market" drum.  If the market is going down, they beat on the "buy into value" drum.  Frankly, I'm tired of it, and they have killed a massive amount of credibility by constantly trying to spin reality for "our" perceived benefit.

A couple of years ago this week, I was on Social Media Edge, on Blog Talk Radio, talking with Ken Cook about this very thing.  I've had my strong opinions about this for quite a while.  And, while for some folks, it is a GREAT time to buy, for others it isn't.  I haven't ever been shy about saying it, even when I have taken flak from my peers for not "cheerleading the market".

On Social Media Edge, we talked for about 20 minutes about this.  Here is a link to the original post, and it has links to the Blog Talk Radio site, as well as a podcast of the broadcast.  Stop in, check it out.

If you are wondering if NOW is the time for you to buy, give Lane a call.  678-200-5895.

Related articles

• Wayback Wednesday... Median Price Comparison... Ouch! (lanebailey.com)
• Wayback Wednesday... Homes ARE Selling! (lanebailey.com)
• Wayback Wednesday... Political Incorrectness (lanebailey.com)

Time to Buy? from LaneBailey.com