Looking Out From the Garage

Fast forward to the last line of this post and you will see me swallow my foot...

Leading indicators v. Trailing indicators

I didn't think Atlanta values would drop more than a couple of points... if that.  Well... 20% later, and there is no way for me to spin it otherwise... I was wrong.  I really thought that we wouldn't see more than a 5% decline.

The rest of the post is interesting as well... simply because of the talk of leading and trailing indicators.  And that is what I want to expand on...  Leading and Trailing Indicators.

As mentioned previously, leading indicators portend to the future.  One of the better leading indicators is the stock market.  Many feel that the stock market points to the larger economy six months in the future.  Of course, there are moments when that isn't true (Earnings Season is a look backward for the stock market)... but generally, traders and investors buy stocks based on how they feel the company going forward.  Stocks tend to move on innuendo, rumor and news.  Usually, if the rumor or innuendo is good, stocks move up, and when the good news confirms, the stock moves down slightly.  If the rumor mill is quiet, and the news leads the run, then good news will push the price higher.

The opposite holds true for bad news...  If the rumor or innuendo is bad, stocks will move down in response.  The bad news confirmation will moderate the decline.  This is because the early movers take advantage of the early rumor, and then when the news hits, they are selling out or covering their shorts (buying to finish their short position).

The best trailing indicator is the unemployment number.  It won't start to creep up until well after a market has changed.  We can see this looking back to the beginnings of the current recession.  Employment remained strong until everything had already changed direction.

And, before we see that unemployment number start to fall, we will likely be well into the next recovery.

Stock and commodity markets provide instant feedback on policy and political changes.  Looking at the current cycle, we can see that both commodities and stocks have fallen sharply with the moves of the Obama Administration.  Basically, the market is telling President Obama and his team... in a pretty unified voice... that they don't think his plans will help business in America.  And while the President and many of his spokespeople are trying to paint the market losses as being a leftover from the Bush Administration, it simply isn't the case.  They don't see the Obama Stimulus Package, nor the recent actions to stabilize the markets as being effective... for the future of the businesses on the market.

On the flip side is the Unemployment Index.  The Obama Administration hasn't really been around long enough to have any realistic effect on that.  They are more of a reflection of monetary policy and the economics of the Bush Administration... until around June... then the Obama people have to start taking responsibility for those numbers as well.

The housing market is also a trailing indicator.  The economy will have certainly turned the corner to a larger recover prior to the housing market showing a change.  Many are crying out that the current financial crisis started in the housing sector and needs to be corrected there... but again, that isn't really the case.  Housing was simply another symptom of the larger problem in the economy... namely, too much spending and not enough saving... by government... by business... be individual... across the board.

When we get the spending and savings under control, we will get the economy under control.

I have to say that I am deeply peeved. 

The country is in the worst financial crisis since the one caused by Jimmy Carter.  Congress has not only been asleep at the switch for a decade, but they have actively roadblocked meaningful reforms and investigations into WHY we have the problems we face. 

There are Wall Street Executives, Members of Congress, Staffers and Lobbyists that should ALL be taking perp walks.  Governors have been nailed with accusations of Pay-for-Play (not just Blago, but also Richardson).  Cabinet Members and Nominees have failed to pay taxes and found other great ways to avoid doing the things the rest of us are required to do... 

So, what is going on?

Instead of the people that we sent to Washington dealing with serious business... the business of running our country, they are pre-occupied with steroids...  STEROIDS...  FRIGGIN' STEROIDS! 

With everything else that is going on in the country, there is NO reason that ANYONE in Washington, DC should give a rat's butt who did or did not take steroids in order to hit a baseball.  There is NO reason that they should care who did or did not hear a conversation about someone else taking steroids.  Taking steroids without a bona-fide medical need is a MISDEMEANOR at most.  It isn't National Security.  It isn't the bankrupting of a nation.  It isn't the future of our children.  It is some baseball players making their balls shrink.  It is a STATE crime... and the states don't have time to deal with it...

Why?

Why should Congress waste the time and money of the American Taxpayer on baseball?  Let MLB waste their time and money.  Sure, in the face of the $1trillion spending package in front of them right now, the money wastage potential is tiny, In fact, the only reason to let the Congress Critters play their little game is that it could divert their attention from screwing up something important...

 have been noticing something. 

Joe the Plumber SCARED Barack Obama...

Now, I'm sure that Obama wasn't frightened as he stood there and talked with Joe... but have you noticed that since that appearance, Obama has not wandered around in places where people might answer unscripted questions?  That was the last time that Obama appeared among the unvetted. 

Joe did something that Obama didn't like... he asked a question that Obama wasn't ready for.  He thought that as he walked along in a working class neighborhood in Ohio, he was among his supporters... and then Joe asked his simple question... and Barack revealed that he thinks it is not just OK, but desirable to take money from one group of people (those that earned it) and give it to another group of people (those that didn't). 

That wasn't in the script. 

Who's hidin' Biden???

And then there was "the interview."  And since the interview, and the numerous other comments that Joe has made over the last few weeks, it seems that Boden has been clamped down on.  No more fundraisers with reporters present.  No more media interviews.  Apparently they have started giving him a teleprompter to try to keep him on message in stump speeches... and he isn't doing as many stump speeches as he was. 

Unlike Obama, who is very good at not stumbling over himself and revealing that which he doesn't want to reveal (Joe the Plumber aside), Joe Biden doesn't seem to need much help.  He seems willing to say damaging things without help. 

Don't look for Joe Biden to show up anywhere that he might have a "rhetorical flourish." 

Maybe Joe will come out and tell us about how FDR got on TV after the stock market crash, live from the Oval office to comfort and support the American people.

So...

After all of the abuse that Obama and his supporters put the McCain campaign through for not giving Sarah Palin over to the media, it seems that now it is Obama and Biden that are hiding out and only getting in front of friendly and controlled crowds. 

• Source 1
• Source 2
• Source 3

I was out with my young son a few days ago and had an encounter with the supporters of a political candidate... and I wasn't happy.  Not happy at all... 

There are a few ground rules that you need to follow as you promote your candidate:

• Don't approach children without the parent's permission!
• Don't offer items to children without the parent's permission!
• Don't give your talking points to a child without the parent's permission!
• Don't argue with a 4 year old when he nails you on your candidates character!
• When the parent tells you that your candidate is not their choice, don't call them a racist.
• When the parent tells you that he doesn't appreciate you trying to indoctrinate their child, don't call them ignorant. 
  
• When you don't actually know the positions of your favored candidate, you might want to stay home from working the crowds.
• Don't say loudly to your "co-supporters" that the guy over there is just an other "ignorant rasict because he won't support your candidate.
• Just because your candidate tells you to get in the face of your neighbors and argue with them doesn't mean that you can do that without consequences. 
  

So, here is the drill...  An Obama supporter approached my child and asked him if he wanted a T-shirt... all they had were kid's sizes, so this was obviously their goal.  I told her that I didn't appreciate her approaching MY child without talking to me first.  She actually ignored me to tell my son to tell me to vote for Obama... 

Now, had it not been for my son, I might have been able to walk away.  But, the little guy had a statement...

"My Mommy always tells me that I need to pick my friends carefully... I might be a bad boy if my friends are bad boys."

She had the nerve to argue with a 4 year old about that...  I took over. 

• William Ayers... and don't give me the line about him being 8 years old.  He wasn't 8 when he launched his political career in Ayers' living room... and Ayers was still unrepentent about his role in killing Americans. 
  
• Frank Marshall Davis... Frank the Poet in Obama's book... a communist at the very least.  And since Obama says in his books that he attended a lot of socialist and communist events, that isn't a shocker.
• Rashid Khalidi... reputed to be a spokesperson for the PLO... back when they weren't a "peaceful grou", but when they were actively commiting acts of terrorism.
• Tony Rezko... Convicted felon now, and Obama supporter... served on his finance committee back when Obama was in the IL State Senate.  Obama claims that they barely knew each other, but they knew each other well enough that he raised money directly for Obama. 
  
• ACORN...  We get a new version of history each time someone uncovers something that Obama can't deny.  

It went downhill from there.  After hitting her with those names, I told her flat out that those people made him unbelievable, and that his plans to raise taxes as we enter a recession were downright dangerous.  And after seeing Obama and Biden change the level of rich from $250k to $200k to $150k, I didn't trust that he wasn't going to tax more people which would damage a wounded economy even further.  Class warfare isn't the way to bring prosperity. 

Just so you know, telling her that I don't care about the color of his skin, but only about the effectiveness of his policies, the quality of his character and the level of his honesty makes me an ignorant racist. 

After hearing the good things that people have said about the Obama campaign workers and the way that they have handled themselves, I must say I was disappointed.  Of course, after seeing how Joe the Plumber was attacked and how the TV anchor in Orlando was attacked and the station cut off because Biden didn't like the questions, I'm not that shocked.

There are a few quotes from this intervirew that I think are really important...  In 2001, the local Public Radio Station in Chicago interviewed Obama and he talked about his thoughts on redistribution of wealth.  Honestly, it is kind of scary that Obama... as a Constitutional Law Professor has NO respect for the Constitution:

• "The Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth and sort of basic issues of political and economic justice in this society, and to that extent as radical as people try to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn't that radical," Obama said in the interview, a recording of which surfaced on the Internet over the weekend.  "It didn't break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution, at least as it has been interpreted."

The Supreme Court... the body charged with the job of making sure that laws are aligned with the Constitution... didn't break free from the Constitution.  Obama has already stated that his selections for the Supreme Court would need to "balance Social Justice" with the law... not follow the law. 

• "And the Warren court interpreted it generally in the same way -- that the Constitution is a document of negative liberties, says what the states can't do to you, says what the federal government can't do to you, but it doesn't say what the federal government or state government must do on your behalf, and that hasn't shifted.

D'uh.  The Bill of Rights is specifically designed to protect the population by LIMITING the power of government.  You limit power by telling people what they aren't allowed to do.  You do NOT limit the power of the government by telling the people that the government is your Mommy. 

So, we have a guy that is about the be President on the United States... and as such, will be sworn to uphold and protect the Constitution of the United States.  And this guy doesn't respect it, and doesn't seem to be able to figure out that the very framework of this country is for the government to be limited in scope. 

And he is backed up by a guy, Joe Biden, that doesn't even know what his job is as defined by that same Constitution. 

And just to make sure that they can do maximum damage, they will have the support of both houses of Congress... 

I'd like to thank:

• the Republican Party for their amazing spending spree the last few years.  
• the Obama voting populace that thinks that socialism is ok...
  
• the Mainstream media for giving the socialist a pass and not holding his ticket to the same standards as the GOP ticket. 
  

For those that are liberal and think that Obama is a good idea... enjoy this time.  There is a VERY good chance that in two years the country will lurch to the right in a GIANT way... and you should assume that Obama will be a one term President unless the GOP completely implodes.  And it may take several generations for the country to recover from the damage done by the next administration. 

If you haven't heard the comment from the last couple of days by Biden, you have missed a LOT. 

"And here's the point I want to make. Mark my words. Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. And he's gonna have to make some really tough - I don't know what the decision's gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it's gonna happen. I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate. And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you, not financially to help him, we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right. Because all these decisions, all these decisions, once they're made if they work, then they weren't viewed as a crisis. If they don't work, it's viewed as you didn't make the right decision, a little bit like how we hesitated so long dealing with Bosnia and dealing with Kosovo, and consequently 200,000 people lost their lives that maybe didn't have to lose lives. It's how we made a mistake in Iraq. We made a mistake in Somalia. So there's gonna be some tough decisions. They may emanate from the Middle East. They may emanate from the sub-continent. They may emanate from Russia's newly-emboldened position because they're floating in a sea of oil."

The bold emphasis is mine... 

The thing to keep in mind here is that Joe Biden did NOT say that ANY President would face these tests.  Joe Biden did NOT say that Obama would make the right decisions. 

But, on Fox News (I tried to hear about it on other news outlets, but they really aren't talking about this...), the Obama surrogates are spinning it like this:

"What Joe Biden was saying was that any President is tested by the crisis that occur all of the time.  It isn't about Obama.  Joe also said that Obama would make the right decisions.

No it isn't.  That isn't what Biden said.  It is VERY MUCH NOT what Biden said. 

This strategy is called "The Big Lie".  If the big lie is repeated often enough, and not refuted, it will be the truth.  The Obama camp is well practiced in the big lie.  They use it a LOT.  The story keeps changing on so many issues in regards to Obama and the election, but they are very good at morphing their story.  It helps not to have to face a tough media.

These are my predictions for the next few years... 

• Obama is likely to be the next President.  He is only going to serve one term.  The race will tighten, but it won't come down to just one state like the last few elections.  McCain only have about a 1 in 5 chance of winning the election.  The popular vote will be in the 49-48-3 (the also rans) range. 
  
• Obama will announce that the country has spoken and this is the solid signal that the country needs a change.  The media won't speak up and declare that Obama only barely cleared half of the votes.  
• Early next year, Obama will announce his tax increase on "the wealthy", so taxes will go up for those making over $250k.  The economy will continue to slow. 
  
• Late next year, Obama will announce that because the Treasury is not getting as much revenue as expected, he will veto any attempts by the GOP to extend the Bush tax cuts.  This will effectively raise taxes for EVERYONE that pays taxes for 2011.  The economy will continue to slow.  
• Despite the fact that none of the things that Obama pointed to as increasing revenues for the government actually increase revenues, he will continue to roll out as much of his $1.3trillion in new programs as he can get through Congress... and Pelosi and Reid are cool with it.  Look for a lot of party line votes, attempted GOP filibusters and continued economic slowing.  
• After the first two years, the Congress will shift toward more Republicans.  Pelosi and Reid will be replaced, and the House might actually fall under GOP control, but the Senate will remain in Democrat hands.
• After almost 4 years in the White House, and no economic recovery, Obama will face off against Fred Thompson for the 2012 Presidential Race.  Thompson's running mate will be Sarah Palin... 
  
• In 2012, the GOP will stage a new Republican Revolution and the gain control of both houses of Congress.  But much damage will have been done. 
  
• In just 4 years, the federal debt will have gone from $10trillion to $15trillion.  In other words, in 4 years, Obama will have created as much debt as Bush did in 8 years.  He will claim it was all Bush's fault.  When Thompson points out in the first debate that Bush inherited Clintons recession (which actually met the definition of a recession), he had turned the country around in less than 4 years... even with 9/11.
• Regardless of what is actually happening, the NAR will announce quarterly that real estate is well on its way to recovering and that NOW is the time to buy...

Am I positive?  On a few of these, yes I am.  Some are just for fun. 

You decide....

I think that I have heard three score and seven commentators use the word "greed" today.  And honestly, I'm pretty tired of it.  They all seem to have an idea of what they mean, but none of them seem to have a clue what it actually means. 

The "accepted definition" is something like: excessive desire, especially for wealth or possessions.

But that leads to a GIANT problem. 

Who decides what is too much?

I'm not defending greed.  I'm saying that it is a vacuous term.  Instead of worrying about greed, maybe we should worry about ethics.  Maybe we should worry about the long-term.  Maybe we should demand the same from our executives.  Maybe we should demand the same from our politicians.

Milton Friedman hit it head on.  Ayn Rand hit it too. 

There certainly is an issue on Wall Street.  There is an issue on K Street too...  And on BOTH ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. 

Is it greed? 

Or is it a serious lack of forethought?  Today, they say that anyone should have seen this coming two years ago... and yet none of them did anything (there is an exception to that... but he McCain didn't get anywhere with that).  Last week they were all willing to pass the bill as long as they weren't the end of the line. 

Take a look at gas prices.  The President announces that he is dropping the Executive Ban on offshore drilling, as well as drilling in some other places.  This sends a signal to the trading community that at least part of the government is serious about lowering dependence on foreign oil.  Oil prices have been trending down since...  And yet, Congress refuses to act.  They know that 70% of the public wants drilling... and so they won't vote on it.  Or at least they won't vote on it until after at least the elections... or possibly even until the next President is sworn in... if it is THEIR guy. 

Instead of thinking that their constituents might be hurting from high fuel prices, which could further slow the economy, and further increase unemployment... they worry about their personal power. 

Is it greed that makes an executive on Wall Street drive a company into the ground while sucking out millions in compensation?  It is pretty easy to argue that it is...  but what about driving the company into the ground while sucking out thousands in compensation?  Perhaps instead it is a serious lack of ethics.  And a lack of honesty.  Honesty with the world, and honesty with the self... 

The fix?

Maybe we need to start punishing ethical breaches... not just the little ones, but the big giant ones, too.  Maybe we need to reward honesty... and not just the little things, but the great big whopping ones too.

I know that it isn't politically correct, but Jon Stewart thought it was funny enough for the Daily Show. And I thought that Bill Mahr wanted to be Politically Incorrect... oh, that's right, he just wants to be canceled... and a hack.

I hope you were able to set aside your political preferences for a monet and see just how humorous that was... And just to be balanced... kind of.

Thank you and good night...

Originally posted to LaneBailey.com

Polls, schmolls...  People keep talking about national polling data... doesn't matter. 

What matters is the Electoral College vote.  Without getting into an argument about the Electoral College, it should be noted that most of the polling data one sees don't take the Electoral College into account. 

But I found a place where the data is parsed to show the polling results and reflected by the Electoral College format.  Love it or hate it, it is still the way it is done (and I can almost smell a post on exactly WHY we have it). 

Curious yet? 

Electoral-Vote.com

As of this particual moment in time, John McCain is edging out Barak Obama 270-268.  Just for a little reference, Obama was leading McCain 301-224 (with 13 dead tied) just a week ago. 

There will certainly be some jockeying between now and the election...