Looking Out From the Garage: January 2011

(Yes, I am behind schedule... this should have been up here on Wednesday...)

Two years ago I wrote a post about fixing things for my son (now I have to fix things for two of them...).  Last week I had a closing that fit the post...

As a Dad, part of my job is fixing things.  As a Real Estate Agent, part of my job is fixing things.  Luckily I don't have to glue/weld, nail or pop things back together in houses... although I have had to help a property or two pass an inspection, but that is another story.

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The closing last week was hard won for my client.  The buyer and seller had their work cut out for them in order to get to the closing table.  The issues weren't anyone's "fault", they just 'were'.  My "goto" Mortgage Dude, Ken Cook, the other agent and I all worked together to find solutions.  The buyer and seller were both flexible.

Even at the last minute when the HUD (closing settlement statement) came in, there were only about three lines that were right...  Of course, the HUD was supposed to be available 24 hours before closing... it was available 90 MINUTES before closing was scheduled.  As I was driving to the closing, I was on the phone with the other agent and the mortgage team, fixing it.

As the buyer was signing the loan docs, the other agent and I were in the hall, talking with a program administrator, closing coordinator and the mortgage team.  We had to tweak the contract to get it all to work... and everyone involved played a part.

And we closed it.

The seller was able to sell a property for which they no longer had need.  The buyer was able to buy a first home.  As we all filed out of the closing room, everyone was happy and thanking the others for their patience and perseverance.

We fixed it.

Fixing it... on LaneBailey.com

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Market stats for Buford, GA, November, 2010 indicate that there were 566 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 10.2 month supply of properties.  December was slightly above last year (62 v 52 for 2009).  But it was also a pretty substantial bump from November (44 sales).  There were 83 sales in June and an Absorption Rate under 8.5 months.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 325 listings, with a 9.1 month supply.  Again, this is the largest price segment in this area, so being up by 10 sales over last year (41 v 31) strengthens the whole market area.  It is also a pretty nice increase over November (29 sales).

Between $200k and $400k, there were 193 listings for sale, and about  11.1 months of supply.  While there was a slight increase in sales compared to November (16 v 13), it was also a decrease from last year (19).  Strangely, this segment has been improving for the last four months.  Much of that is due to decreased inventory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 27 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 20.1 Months.  This shouldn't be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There have been 4 sales in the last 3 months.  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  There were 2 sales in November, 2010... and 3 this year.  Last month's 57 months of inventory looks like an anomaly.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings.  Absorption Rate is 21 months... but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 3 sales in this segment this year... the last was this past November.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 3 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until this month (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than 50% compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April... of 2009... still...

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Related articles

• Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Buford GA Market Reports on LaneBailey.com

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , December, 2010 indicate that there are 241 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.7 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July, but inventories have been rising, and along with it, the number of months of inventory (that is the wrong way...)

for Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 168 listings, with under 9.7 months supply.  Sales are also about 3x of the level last year, 25 v 8 last December.  But, for the last three months, that only puts sales up by 3 v last year.  And this segment is doing WAY better than the next one up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 63 listings for sale, and about 17.2 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It had a slight bump in November, but drove off a cliff in December.  There were only 3 sales v 11 last year.  In fact, for the last three months, there were only 11 sales v 27 last year.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 36 months, but with 1 sale in the last 6 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment this year.  Last year there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 18 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Related articles

• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Sugar Hill Market Reports on LaneBailey.com

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Chevy has been building Suburbans since 1935.  It is THE longest surviving nameplate in the world.  And Suburbans are ubiquitous.  They have been built by Chevy, GMC, Holden (GM's Australian division) Chevrolet Mexico and Chevrolet Brazil... even Cadillac has a version.

In general, Suburbans have evolved into two variants, seriously luxurious and robust working trucks.  In the past, there was also a really cool panel wagon version.

What I would like to see is an expansion of the robust working truck side of the equation, with two unique vehicles...  they would be almost the same, except one would be designed as a people carrier, while the other would be an equipment hauler.

These would both be K2500 (3/4 ton rated) based trucks, running the LML Duramax (397hp and 765 pd-ft of torque) with the Allison 6 speed automatic transmission.  That would be a pretty stout package, and should be capable of towing 15,000+ pounds.  Payload would likely be over 3,400 pounds.

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Add in all of the cool candy, like power seats, windows, locks, and a few like work friendly "hotspot" capability, as well as heated seats, mirrors that melt ice on their own and the "supplemental heat" (like on the Ford Diesels, which can blow hot air from the vents immediately upon starting up).

But, so far we haven't made a concept as much as an option set...

• 35" tires.  I like the GoodYear MTR as an option.
• To accommodate the tires, the vehicle will need a moderate lift, about 3".
• Tough bumpers are needed in tough terrain, so a pair like those made by Buckstop Bumpers would be good.
• Drop a Warn 12,000 pound winch on that front bumper.
• Pull out the carpet and spray in a commercial bedliner product.
• While we are at the bedliner place, spray the rocker panels to help protect a bit from rocks bouncing up while off-road.
• Some smaller fender flares would help in that regard, too.

The primary difference would be that one vehicle would remain a 4 door truck with a functional rear seat.  The other would be altered to a 2 door configuration.  In effect, the rear doors would be sealed up.  In effect, it would be like a pick-up truck with a bed cap, but it would be integrated, which should increase torsional rigidity.

With the departure of Hummer from the civilian market, GM is poised to take over the heavy duty, robust "carry-all" market.  ;^ )

Related articles

• 53 Cool Concepts... Part XXIX (lanebailey.com)
• Yukon, Tahoe trucks are part of GM's expanded axle recall (chron.com)

Cool Concept Cars on LaneBailey.com

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2010 indicate that there are 548 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 10.8 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 165 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 9.9 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed...  This is one of the rare segments that actually bumped in November, rather than December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 249 listings for sale, and 9 months of supply.  Sales for December 2010 were 25 compared with 22 for the same period in 2009.  Still weak, but with the decrease in listings, leading to an improvement in the Absorption Rate.  For October, sales were down from 53 last year v 31 this year.  November continued the (poor) trend with 27 sales v 41 last year.

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From $400k to $600k, there are 71 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 19.4 months.  There were 4 sales this year... dwarfed by the 7 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 11 sales this year and 24 for the same period last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 26 listings, with about a 26 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 3...  For the sale time last year, the sales were 7.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and approximately 3+ years of inventory on the market.  There has only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 each in January, April, May and December).  Honestly, last year looked a little better, but not much.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 18 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Oct-Dec this year and 2 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories...  There were 37 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Related articles

• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
• Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Suwanee Market Report on Lane Bailey.com

What can be more fun than an Airshow?  And Dobbins Air Reserve Base has been holding one for years (missing a couple of years... but not many).  And the stars of the show are the Blue Angels.

The 2010 was on 16th July.  It was a great time, with the Blue Angels, Canadian Snowbirds and several other aerobatic groups and individuals.  There were also a LOT of display aircraft onsite, including this C-5a Galaxy.

As the show was winding down (actually over, but the bus lines were WAY crowded), we were walking around and managed to catch the nose being lowered.  I couldn't help but think that the plane was smiling at the kids (and the kids were definitely smiling back).

Despite the heat and lack of shade and the long day, the kids were still enthralled by the planes.  Walking through the transports was a big thrill for them.  Sitting in ANY of the planes was a big thrill for them.  And the big one also loved the noise made by the jet fighters.

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When I was a kid, a guy I knew in the Air Force called it "the Sound of Freedom."  I told my older son, and he took that euphemism and ran with it.

BTW, Fat Albert, the Blue Angels support plane, puts on a heck of a show, too.  That C-130 transport has some capabilities... and the pilot has some serious skills.

If you get the chance to make a Blue Angels show (anywhere), take it.  Plan on having some fun.

Related articles

• On wings of Blue Angels, toy journeys from one heart to another (cnn.com)