Looking Out From the Garage: October 2009

I love WRC... that is NOT a secret...

Lancia Stratos Rally CarAnd I have searched in vain for a video of what started it all... 

In 1974, my family was vacationing in Ecuador.  At that time there was a Rally that ran all through the country.  Our friends lived in Manta, and the race wound through town, having an overnight stop.  We were given the opportunity to walk among the cars as they sat in Parc Ferme.  The teams couldn't work on the cars at that time, but team members were around the cars, answering questions and interacting with the crowd.  It was the first (and only) time I was able to see a Lancia Stratos up close. 

Early the following morning, we got up and rode a bus into the country outside of Manta.  Out hosts knew of "a spot" that would be entertaining. 

It was a small cafe in the middle of nowhere, just after a crest in the road.  We sat on the patio all morning, eating local food and watching the 50 or 60 cars entered in the event come by.  Each car launched a little (or a lot) as it came over the crest.  Some just barely pulled their wheels off of the ground, others flew for 20 or 30 yards. 

There were no big factory teams, but there were some teams that were obviously well sponsored.  There were also teams that looked like they barely could put together a deal for fuel each day. 

I couldn't understand much of the conversation around me, as I didn't speak much Spanish... but I could understand the excitement.  I knew which fans were cheering for which marques.  I knew who the local drivers were... and which driver's wife and sister were sitting in the same cafe. 

Ever since that moment, I have loved seeing this particular type of car hurtling through the woods, along the coast, in the desert or the snow.  On asphalt, gravel and dirt. I love the smell of the fuel. The clutch.  The tires.  The brakes.  Thirty-five years later, I can think back to that day... sipping a Coke, eating fresh baked croissants, watching these brave racers drive on real roads at breakneck speeds.

It isn't WHY I'm a car guy... I was a car guy before I was 9 years old.  But, at the same time it says a lot about why I LIKE being a car guy.



One day I might find video from one of those South American Rallyes... but I still have my memories...

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5 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 29 2009 12:14AM

Holy Crap... It's Almost November... FTHBTC... Extended?

Do you know what those initials (FTHBTC) stand for? 

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit...

If you aren't already familiar with it, it might be gone before you get a chance to get more familiar...  It is currently slated to expire at the end of November.  And the clock is ticking. 

In a nutshell, the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit is the governments way to push a few first time home buyers (people that haven't owned a home for 36+ months) off of the fence and get them buying sooner rather than later.  It is $8000, in form of a refundable tax credit, for those targeted buyers if they buy a qualifying home.. and don't earn over the income caps. 

There are a LOT of posts written about the tax credit... this post is about the clock.  Or calendar, rather. 

While talking with one of my "Go To" Mortgage Gurus, the subject of mortgage application turn times came up.  He is up to his eyeballs in applications, as are other Mortgage Originators.  They are currently turning from application to close in about 21 days... 

The credit is slated to expire on November 30th... about 33 days from now.  Given that most homes take a few days to negotiate, time is short... 

Scratch all of that... 

Alright, literally as I wrote the last line I got word that the credit is likely to be extended until April of 2010.  The details haven't been hammered out yet, but it looks like the credit will survive for a few more months... 

Nevermind. 

 

But, don't wait until the last minute.  Over the last few weeks we have seen homes in multiple offer situations.  We have seen a little inflating of entry level home prices.  Acting sooner, rather than later, might be a good idea... things usually slow during the winter here.

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4 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 28 2009 07:12PM

Blank the Falcons Stadium Demands...

Aurthur Blank is at it again.  He is making noise about wanting a new stadium for the Atlanta Falcons to play in.  And to that extent, I have no issue with it... 

But he seems to think it is the responsibility of the taxpayers to pick up the tab.  Why?  What responsibility do the taxpayers have to fund the business locations for private businesses?  The Falcons are arguing that the need more luxury suites in order to increase revenue...  Ok. 

The State of Georgia will only barely be at the end of paying for the Georgia Dome when Blank wants another one... 2015. 

Georgia Dome

But that doesn't matter...  What matters is that there shouldn't even be a question.  If the Falcons want a new stadium, make a business case for it, go out and get the money... and BUILD IT.  But don't get the money from taxpayers, get the money yourselves. 

  • Lower pay for the players...
  • Raise prices for the fans...
  • Charge more for TV rights...
  • Renovate the current stadium... but pay for it yourselves. 

Has Road Atlanta or Atlanta Motor Speedway taken hundreds of millions of dollars from the state to build new facilities?  No...  Even though there are more tickets sold for TWO weekends at AMS than for a season of Falcons football.  Road Atlanta hosts 320,000+ fans each year...  One could certainly make a case that they have a significant economic impact on Hampton and Braselton, GA. 

Sports teams don't have a right to taxpayer money...  They are business franchises, and as such should be responsible for their own venues...  Just like ANY other business. 

source

source

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9 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 27 2009 11:07PM

How To Help The Loan Go Smoother and Faster

Ken is one of the best...  And if he says you need it, it is pretty likely you'll need it...

Via Ken Cook, FHA Home Loans 678-439-8683:

It's easy to complain about how long it takes a loan to close - even loan officers do it. The truth is if everything is in order and the property is acceptable the loan should close within 21 to 30 days of the receipt of all documents by the lender. This is not 21 days from application date nor is it 21 days from contract date. It is exactly as stated: 21 to 30 days from the date a full application is received.

The tug-of-war between agents and loan officers can be turned around if both remember to stand on the same side of the mud puddle. Generally the agent needs to realize they do not know as much about the actual workings of the mortgage industry as the loan officer and the loan officer needs to realize the same and not leave the agent in the dark and don't use insider terms to explain everything. I understand Active Rain participating agents are more well informed than others because we all swim in this same pool!

Almost every loan application has some similar needs. If the agent knows what these are and can help prep the client to get these together quickly and accurately then the agent and the loan officer can start out by standing on the same side of the mud puddle and pulling the same direction on the rope. These are not absolutes and are not carved in stone but at least 9 of 10 loan applications need most of the following:

For W2 Employees

  1. Two years of tax returns, all schedules, signed by the taxpayers. This will be verified by the IRS so go ahead and feel free to ask the home buyer if these are the same tax forms they sent to the IRS for those tax years.
  2. Two months of bank statements all pages including blank ones - front and back (checking and savings if they are used on the application as assets). Look at the documents and find every page. If the first page says 1 of 15 we'll be looking for 15 pages.
  3. One month's coverage of pay stubs showing deductions and year-to-date income. If they get paid weekly this would be four pay stubs. If they are paid bi-monthly this would be two pay stubs and so on. If they get paid by a handwritten check (like some small businesses do) we're going to have some challenges verifying income according to document requirements so brace for impact.
  4. A clear photo-copy of a government issued ID (driver's license, passport) showing the current address. If the current home address is different than the address on the ID we may need a letter of explanation.
  5. A clear copy of the social security cards. Photo copies are okay and scans are best.
  6. A fully executed sales agreement signed by all parties and legible. If it has been faxed back and forth we cannot read the words or even the signatures. If your great-grandad cannot easily read the contract in low light it's not good enough. Send us the unexecuted (unsigned) contract along with the best possible signed copies.
  7. If it is a condominium we need the condo questionnaire completed (you can get that from me or whoever your lender is - each lender has a different one) and insurance information.
  8. We need the insurance information for the buyer's preferred home owner's agent.
  9. If there is a gift of funds from an acceptable member (pretty much limited to a direct family member like a parent, child, sibling or spouse) we need a gift letter which you can get from the loan officer.
  10. If the home buyers have not been in the same line of work for 2 years that could be an issue so be prepared to face that challenge.
  11. If the home buyers have a gap of more than a couple of weeks between jobs a good letter of explanation will be needed.
  12. If the home buyer is receiving Social Security Income or Disability we will need the award letter and it will need to be continuing for three years after the closing date.
  13. If the home buyer does not have a checking account they need to go get one. It's very difficult to get a file closed for someone without a checking account.
  14. If the home buyer has student loans which are deferred we need the letter of deferment and it needs to be good for at least the next 12 months.
  15. If the home buyer is receiving maintenance from another person we need the court order and if it is for child support we need the birth certificate of the children. (We are not permitted by law to ask if the applicant wants to use child support as maintenance.)
  16. If the buyer has another home and it is for sale we may need a copy of the listing agreement.
  17. If the buyer recently sold a previous home and are using the proceeds for the down payment we need to see a copy of the HUD1 from that closing.
  18. If the property is new construction we will likely need a termite free letter.
  19. If the property is in a flood zone there is a brand new set of requirements.
  20. If the property was purchased by the seller within the last 6 months and has increased in value more than 5% have the seller be prepared to show documented upgrades, repairs and other investments into the life and value of the property.

Seriously, this is a partial list. There may be this many things again especially if the buyer is self employed or a legal resident alien. If you are aware of these and the buyer and seller are aware of these and we work together to get them then at least the first 10% of the work required to get the loan into underwriting for approval has been addressed. There are at least this many items which are addressed by the lender which also have to be completed before the application can even be submitted to underwriting.

It may be that the lender will not need all of these documents but they will need most of them. How many times have you spoken with a loan officer and they said, "I'm still waiting on the ...." If that is one of the things on this list you should already have prepped the home buyer(s) to know they will need to supply these. The longer they take to get it in the longer the loan will take to get closed.

Ken Cook - Nationwide Specialist - Information/Marketing - FHA Home Loans
678-439-8683

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3 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 27 2009 09:56PM

Gwinnett County Market Report, Sept. 2009...

The market is in a state of change.  And things are in a state of flux for the next few months... and depending on what happens with the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, maybe longer. 

Inventories are dropping and sales are rising... September numbers:

  • New listings - 1272, down 36% from Sept. 2008.
  • Pending sales - 840, up 13% from Sept. 2008.
  • Solds - 675, flat from Sept. 2008. (674 solds in Gwinnett County in Sept. 2008)
  • Average Price - $176,937, down 11.3% from Sept. 2008.
  • Total Listings on the Market - 6081 (10/1/09) vs 9187 (10/1/08)

Absorption rates are a good way to gauge market direction in both short and long terms.  It measures the number of months it would take to absorb all of the current inventory if sales remained constant and no more homes came on the market.  In general, maintaining about 6 months of home inventory is considered balanced. 

Averaging the last three months of sales, there is about 8.5 months of inventory.  Last year at this time we had 13.4 months of inventory using the three month average.

Using the last six months of sales, there is about 9.0 months of inventory.  Last year we were looking at 13.2 months under the six month average. 

The long term measure utilizes an average of twelve months of sales.  With the long term look-back, I see 10.6 months of inventory.  Last year was 14.6 month of inventory averaged over the past year's sales. 

What does that mean?

From the Absorption Rates, I can tell several things.  The market has been improving over the last few months.  Each shorter time frame lowers the inventory lag.  The market is MUCH better than last year at the same time, and last year the market had started a turn... but also started a seasonal downturn that we don't seem to be seeing yet this year.  Finally, the market still has a distance to go before it is really balanced

Combining this with the above data tells me that Gwinnett County has seen most of its improvements because of a lower supply, not an increased demand.  Despite incredibly low rates and reasonable prices, buyers aren't jumping in to the market in higher numbers... 

But...

There is an anomaly.  When we start breaking the sales up by price, we see that entry level homes ARE selling at increased rates, while being offset by continued slackness in the higher end homes.  This would be due to the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  It IS pushing sales of entry level homes, typically in the "under $150,000" price arena.  But there are very few first time buyers looking in the $500,000 range. 

The problem is that most of the sales to first timers are sales that would have likely happened next year anyway... which means that the tax credit, if continued, would lose effectiveness.  But, if the credit isn't continued, the drop in sales will be more precipitous in December. 

If you are an entry level buyer, and haven't found your house yet, the chances of getting closed before November 30th are pretty slim.  But don't despair, you might be able to find the house you want for less money in December or January. 

If you are a seller with an entry level home, things might start looking ugly... now.  If the property isn't under contract, don't hold your breath.  Right now it is taking 30 days to close buyers with excellent credit and perfect properties.  Most first time buyers have some sort of issue that needs correction prior to closing. 

The real test...

Will be the December numbers.  I expect to see November come in with a HEALTHY increase.  Nov. 2008 saw 376 sales, and I think that will be in the range of double for Nov. 2009.  December 2008 had 503 sales... I'm looking for half of that if the tax credit goes away. 

If sales come in higher in December and/or approach 370 (which was the number for January, 2009) in January, 2010, then we are on the road to recovery...  I'm not expecting that.

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2 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 26 2009 09:49PM

Video Sunday... Fast and Slow...

Every once in a while I run across a video that is amazing... and then there are some that are hilarious.  Tonight's installment has one of each. 

I'll start with slow and amazing. 

I've always felt that motorsports represented a kind of dance...  Man, Machine and Talent... combined into an artistic expression.  The footwork of the racer going through the gears while blipping the throttle on up and down shifts, feathering the brakes and strategically slipping the clutch or trailbraking while increasing throttle pressure...  All of this framed by the rhythm of the steering inputs. 

This video slows down the responses as viewed from outside... both in two and four wheeled sport. 

 

The Fast and Hilarious... 

This modified Cadillac launches so hard that On-Star thinks it has been in an accident.  So they call to make sure everything is ok.  You have to get to the 1:30 mark to hear the operator call to check up...  That's funny.

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3 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 25 2009 10:53PM

When Should You Get Pre-Approved For A Purchase Loan?

Ken pegs it again... which is why I am re-blogging him again so soon...  Exceptional post.

Via Ken Cook, FHA Home Loans 678-439-8683:

This one kind of goes along with "When Can We Close?" from a couple of years ago and another "How Long Does It Take To Close Today?" from a few weeks ago. It is further inspired by feedback from many agents and clients over the last many years.

First it is important to understand the difference between a pre-approval, an approval and a clear-to-close. That explanation is given here at "Pre-Approval, Approval, Conditional, Cleared - What the ____?!" Let me augment that by saying you, the home buyer, have a lot of power over how certain your pre-approval is.

Pre-approvals are generally good for 30 days. This almost always depends on lender guidelines. To make sure you are getting a real pre-approval listen to how long it takes to get your pre-approval and to what you supply to the loan officer before you receive your pre-qualification letter.

Recently I received a call from one of the largest banks in the world and the phone call started by telling me I had been pre-approved for a very low interest rate to refinance my current home. When I asked the phone bank operator to send me the pre-qualification he said he would have to ask just a few questions first. There was probably only a pre-qualification based on my credit score and estimated property value. Worth nothing.

A real pre-qualification can take as little as a couple of hours and a seasoned loan professional can easily guide you through the process. Anyone who gives you a pre-qualification over the phone without having seen any evidence to prove what you have said is giving you a decision based on credit and payment history with your statements only. This type of pre-qualification is what gives loan officers a bad name.

If you are thinking about going shopping for a new home you should get pre-qualified before you even begin. Unless you have significant income, strong credit and payment history and plenty of cash you need to know what the lender is going to offer based on your specific qualifications. The loan officer will also be able to tell you which property types and costs are okay for which loan products.

To sum it up - get qualified first then start shopping. Otherwise you may be wasting your time and the time of others as well.

 

Ken Cook - Nationwide Specialist - Information/Marketing - FHA Home Loans
678-439-8683

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2 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 25 2009 09:53PM

Ford is pushing the envelope...

FordHave you heard about Fusion 41?  Ford is grabbing a handful of social media and leveraging it to promote the 2010 Ford Fusion.

I'll give you the link to check out the contest.  It is pretty cool.  Go buy a 2010 Fusion, grab a few friends and have some fun.  BTW, I'll be happy to be on a team if you have the car...

;^ )

The Fusion 41

from LaneBailey.com

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5 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 25 2009 09:50PM

Flapjacks and Flicks... Northlake Festival...

My son's Kindergarten teacher and some of his classmates families gathers this morning at the Movie Tavern at Northlake Festival in Tucker.  It is right by Northlake Mall... look for the giant tower in the parking lot. 

The reason for the gathering was Flapjacks and Flicks (pdf) and Where the Wild Things Are... 

Flapjacks and Flicks

On the menu is a drink and unlimited pancakes...  The price is reasonable... considering the breakfast involved.  We each had a couple of plates of pancakes (3 pancakes a plate), and a fairly big soft drink.  The pancakes were pretty good. 

Now, I am a "popcorn and barrel of Coke" kind of guy when it comes to a movie... but I also haven't been doing a lot of 9:00am movies.  It was a great experience... and the 5 year old was pretty calm... I'll take that as a testament to his full belly. 

My suggestions, get there a little early.  This will allow you to get an extra serving or two of pancakes, if so desired.  We ordered just before the movie started and got our flapjacks about 20 minutes into the flick. 

Check the movie schedule... grab some breakfast during a movie.

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3 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 24 2009 11:38PM

Pre-Approval, Approval, Conditional, Cleared - What the ____?!

Ken is one of my "GoToGuys" for mortgages.  He knows his stuff...  And there is NO way I could have written this nearly as well.  NO way. 

Via Ken Cook, FHA Home Loans 678-439-8683:

Ancient Mortgage Proverb: No deal is ever 100% certain until the loan is completely paid off.

There exists a chasm in communication, familiarity and point of view between agents and loan officers. Sometimes we try to act like it does not exist and we really wish it was not so. I know this chasm exists, just as you do for many reasons, because I have had real estate agents - very good agents - try to convert to loan officer at my companies and I have seen this chasm immediately appear. Sales are fairly and generally black and white, go or no-go, yea or nay. Either the seller accepts the offer, counters or declines. Every agent I have seen try to become a loan officer has had a difficult time adjusting to the different levels of approval.

There are different levels of approval with virtually every mortgage application to loan process and agents we really need you to do your best accept them even if you don't understand them. Otherwise you're going to continue driving the loan officer (me :) nuts and forcing the weaker ones to lie to you or avoid you. Let me help you not contribute to their delinquency by briefly explaining some of the levels of loan approval and addressing how I handle them individually.

First please recognize the average loan has many human and non-human touch-points. It's not just the loan officer or just the loan officer and the underwriter. There are also as many as dozens of other humans plus automated systems involved. If the loan application is not approved by each and every one of these processes as required by the lending or insurance (mortgage insurance) guidelines the application will be denied and the deal will be done.

I don't care who the loan officer is, where they work or what they say - these are constants and work the same way at every lender/bank/broker unless the person you are talking to has the money in their personal checking account and are personally making the loan - something a loan officer does not have the authority to do for any lender.)

Application Approval - these are generally worthless. These are generally called a pre-approval and sent on a letterhead from the bank, lender or broker. These are often given only after accepting the application and examining the credit history of the applicant(s). At this point nothing has usually been verified or even documented such as income, assets and job history. (I do give these and I explain this is a CREDIT ONLY pre-approval and I have verified nothing except credit and payment history.)

Credit Only Approval - see above.

Automated System Approval (Application Stage) - this is also generally worthless. The loan officer generally has not verified income, assets and job history at this point. This is where most "approval letters" are issued on that official looking FNMA Pre-Approval sheet. (I give these as well and explain I still need all the documentation and several verifications of documenation from the appropriate source.)

Underwriter's Opinion Pre-Approval - again basically worthless for the same reasons. (I give these ocassionally when there is a borderline issue as in tax returns for example.)

Underwriter's Conditional Approval - this is where the loan officer should have a very good idea if this application will be approved. There can be as many as 3 or more weeks between the Application Approval and this date because this is the first time anyone has looked at the complete application package which will include: income documentation (pay stubs, tax returns, etc.), asset documentation (bank statements, retirement account statements, letters of verification), employment verification, rent/mortgage verification, appraisal, insurance documentation, inspection (if required), fully executed and legible purchase agreement, and whatever else is needed. THIS IS STILL NOT AN APPROVAL! There will be conditions and until the conditions are satfisfied this is not a loan.

Clear to Close (or Cleared to Close) - this is it. This is the first time ANYONE can assure this will be a finalized transaction and it does have an expiration - usually 7 to 10 days after the approval.

-Side note about conditions. I had a first time home buyer ask me about "Conditions" the other day. He's a young and single man so I used an illustration I thought he could easily understand. I said, "Suppose you finally get up the courage and ask that pretty girl out on a date. She tells you she will go out with you if you drive a red sports car, pick her up at exactly 7PM and take her to the most expensive restaurant in town." I needed to offer no further explanation of conditions.

The bottom line is this: If you do your job right, the loan officer does their job right, the title/escrow agency does their job right, the appraiser does their job right, the inspector does their job right, the insurance company does their job right, the buyer's employer does their job right, the buyer's current mortgage company or landlord does their job right, the person giving the gift (if there is a down payment gift) does their job right, the IRS does their job right, the borrower's accountant/CPA does their job right, the seller does their job right, the appraiser does their job right, the HOA does their job right, the inspector does their job right, the processor does their job right, the underwriter does their job right, the closing co-ordinator does their job right, the funder does their job right, the seller's agent does their job right ... that's most of them ... then within a few days to a few weeks we'll meet at the closing table. Until then NOTHING is certain.

Now do you still want my opinion or do you want to wait for the truth?

Ken Cook - Nationwide Specialist - Information/Marketing - FHA Home Loans
678-439-8683

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0 commentsLane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy • October 24 2009 10:24PM