Looking Out From the Garage: June 2008

For many types of marketing activities that are performed over time, there is a blossom. 

If you have done direct mail or blogged for a while, you might have noticed it.  As Satch Carlson like to say... "nothing.. nothing... nothing.... JET BLAST."  You know.  You are putting it out there for a month... and then two months.  Nothing.  Three months.  Four months?  Nothing.

And then one day the phone rings.  I saw your blog.  And then again.  I got that newsletter you sent me.  It isn't linear. 

This isn't just for real estate.  I am in a 4x4 club, and we host a pretty big blood drive each year.  I've written about it here.  I chaired the event last year, and handed it off for this year's event.  Last year, I was calling vendors and trying to get prizes and swag.  I did pretty well, too.  It was the 4th year, and this year's event was the fifth.  As I was calling last year, many of the vendors were ready for me.  We had been "back to the well" before. 

This year, it was different.  Vendors we hadn't heard of were calling us.  Vendors we had lost touch with were calling us. We weren't begging.  We were picking. 

And I am starting to get the blossom from my marketing.  I don't have to beg clients to work with me... but I have trouble getting to the point where I can pick and choose.

There are things that I find hilarious as I wander through the listings... 

I'm working on a market whiff... kind of a pre-CMA to see if the property will be priced in the ball park... and I am looking through a bunch of listings.  And I keep thinking that in some cases there are too many agents that went to the same school... and a few that just skipped all school. 

• Too many options to list.

Ya' think?  I bet that almost EVERY house on the market has too many options to list in the limited space we have... So, hit some highlights!

• Winter (dormant grass) pics.

I just looked at the calendar, and it is June.  I just looked at my unwatered front yard, and it is green... has been for a few months.  Take some new pictures!  It really won't hurt you.

• Hard surface countertops?

Ok, I know that she meant to say solid surface countertops... but this makes it sound like foam was an option.  That would be kind of fun... foam counters. 

• EVERYTHING IS ALL CAPS!

Why?  I had to constantly ask to have my listings input NOT in all caps.  Only a small percentage of listings aren't all capped.  And "tradition" isn't an excuse.

Keep in mind...

Despite the power of other outlets, the MLS is our most powerful marketing tool.  Most buyers, whether they find the property through an agent or some other source, get to see an MLS listing first.  IDX, listing syndication... those base off of the MLS listing.  Make it count.

And it wasn't a bad thing.  

The story won't air until next month (July), but they were filming in one of my listings.  Specifically, they were showing a property that was staged with a live-in home manager.  Showhomes of Atlanta is the vendor that is doing the job correctly in this story. 

Somebody else didn't.  And instead of saving the seller money and making their home more attractive and available. They did exactly the opposite.  

I don't want to go into details, because the story isn't released yet, but I will say that it seemed Randy Travis (not the singer) was pretty impressed with the house, the furnishings and the professionalism of the folks from Showhomes of Atlanta. they are the counter-point to fly-by-night operations that don't properly investigate the people that they put in their clients' homes... and by extension, our clients.

As always, I am willing to make myself and my listings (with the client's consent) available to the media.  In this case, I only had to show up.  Everything was arranged through and by Showhomes.  But, when I know that a vendor is doing a good job for my clients, I have no problem promoting them.  When they are doing a bad job for my clients... I make it tough to hide. 

It was a lot of fun meeting the crew from Showhomes, as well as a couple of the folks from The iTeam.

Welcome to my almost, roughly weekly recap of the prior weeks blog posts at LaneBailey.com.  I am not nearly as consistent wit hthese updates as I should be... but they are all chronicled here. 

Video Sunday... Racing in 3 Dimensions.  I love desert racing.  It is one of the things on my bucket list.  I'd love to run a truck across the desert at 100+mph.  So, watch clips.  

When you are Looking for the Gwinnett real estate expert? you might find me.  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution did.  I have a lot of posts about the state of the market in Gwinnett. 

There are some experts that think there might be an Oil Bubble? forming in the price of crude.  Those experts think that what might be needed to pop it would be the US Government opening a few places up for drilling. 

Finally! An eNewsletter... Mailing... Tomorrow!  Ok, that would make it 6/19... but I will have another one every month.  Sign up at the link.

Every once in a while I just have to say... Could I ask for a nicer day?

Obeoman from here at A|R has done an incredible series of posts about the floods in Wisconsin.  From our friends fighting rivers... is about the great way he has told this painful story.  You owe it to yourselves to visit Steve (THE Obeoman) on his blog and see for yourselves. 

We all need to examine our systems.  There is always room for improvement.  Disassemble, rebuild, test fit, repeat...  Whether it is selling real estate, building street rods or operating heavy equipment, it isn't just the parts that can be tweaked.  It is the way we go about the job.

I talked with a home owner (potential seller?) not long ago about listing their home.  It was a beatiful home.  Nice neighborhood.  Good schools.  Well decorated.  I was not talking with them specifically about listing.  It wasn't a house I wanted to list...  No garage space.  But, this particular person wanted me to give them my "honest impression" of what they had been hearing from other agents. 

They had talked with a couple of agents, and were about to sign.  They thought their home was worth about $300k... and were surprised when the LOWEST listing price that was suggested by any of the interviewed agents was almost $350k.  But, all three agents also wanted to have built in reductions.  None of the agents tried to push them down on the price. 

Keep in mind, the CMAs were sketchy... and the highest price EVER paid in the neighborhood was close to $350k... almost 2 years ago.  And the more recent comps were closer to the $275k to $300k range.  In talking with the home owner, I would have suggested that the list in the $300k range...

This isn't a hot neighborhood.  And it isn't an anomaly. 

And these are people that are fairly motivated. 

But has it come to this... agents bid up the list price in hopes of getting a listing?  Then what?  Wait for the automatic price reductions?  Refuse to market the property until the price is inline?  Or just go broke tilting at windmills? 

Be realistic.  While there are some sellers that are not realistic, there are others that are.  And you aren't doing any favors to the unrealistic ones pumping them full of sunshine while working to cut their legs out from under them later.

Auto restoration, real estate, diet... whatever.

It's all about building the system, examining the system, testing the system...

and doing it all over again...

and again... and again.

I am building a Jeepster/Commando from the ground up. Currently I am building a frame. I know that in order to get it right, I will put it all together, and then I will take it back apart... several times.

I do the same thing with real estate. Is that an admission of imperfection? Absolutely. But, I do it more often than most. Most sellers (or buyers) only go through the process a few times in their lives. And they are spread out. So, the conditions that they operate in are often not comparable. Testing and getting a meaningful result isn't practical. In effect, when people choose to buy or sell without representation, they are re-inventing the wheel.

As a professional, I do it a bunch of times each year. So, I can build a system to sell property. I can test the system. I can rebuilding it for the next time. And it will be tested again.

If someone tells you they have a perfect system... think about that for a few minutes. Perfect? Really? There is always a way to make it a little better...

10,000 listings in FMLS.  Actually 10,043 Single Family Residences listed for sale in Gwinnett County.  These include Active Listings, Pending Sale (with a Contingency) and Pending Sale (with a Kick-Out Contingency).  That is a LOT of properties. 

But I would hesitate to say that all of them are equally for sale...

I recently spoke with a reporter for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution regarding Gwinnett County's real estate market.  At that time, there were a little under 10,000 homes listed.  I told him that 6,000 really weren't in the picture.  More accurately, what I said was that only about 4,000 had a prayer of selling.  He extrapolated (and quite accurately) that 6,000 were just parking. 

I'm not basing this on a finger in the wind.  So far this year, for every home that sold, between 4 and 5 have come on the market to replace it.  Flip that around, and about 1 in 4 or 5 homes is selling...  Or, stretching it out, between 2,000 and 2,500 homes currently on the market are likely to sell unless there is a radical shift in the market dynamic this summer. 

Mostly, it is the same homes that will get lots of looks that will sell... and the rest will languish.  But of course there are some homes that are on the edge that will get some traffic... and almost make it.  I'll admit to guessing here, but I would say that those will account for 1,500 to 2,000 homes. 

Scary thought if you are a seller!

Seriously.  If you need to sell, you need to pay attention to the market.  If you don't need to sell... that's ok.  But, for the sellers that need to sell, price is an issue.  Condition is an issue.  Marketing is an issue.  Presentation is an issue. 

And actually kind of intimidating if you are a buyer...

There are a lot of properties to navigate in order to find the right one for your needs, wants and budget.  Are you getting the right house and at the right price?  Of course, finding the right place is only a small part of the battle.  There is paying for it... and making sure it isn't a lemon... and navigating the sale. 

In conclusion...

I love that my buyers have so many choices.  I hate it that my sellers have so much competition.  A few years ago, I hated it that my buyers had so much competition.  I loved it that my sellers had so many choices. 

The market is what it is.  It will change, but if you are on the wrong side of it, and have to sell, you have to operate with the way the market is today.

The blogosphere is going nuts with this...  He gets a sweetheart deal from Countrywide, disavows all knowledge, and then pushes a $300B bailout...  Not only did he get about $70k in campaign contributions from Countrywide and BoA in the last year and a half, but the loan is apparently going to save him an extra $70k. 

Boy, the Democrats in control sure are changing things from the "Culture of Corruption" they alledged under the Republicans.  And of course, everyone Obama touches seems to have issues... another big change. I would really question the judgement of a man that can't seem to find an honest person to stand next to him.

But, the thing that is bothing me is that while every time a Republican gets nailed for something (and there have been plenty to be rightly perp walked) the news stories never forget which party they belong to... but in the story from Reuters, the party is seperated by a couple of paragraphs from the names... and the Republicans have barely a word or two before they are classified. 

Portfolio.com saw it a little differently.  The identify each player's party right next to their name. 

Of course, we need to add Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Jim Johnson (the former head of Obama's VP search), and I'm sure there will be a few more...  Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) are getting connected, too.  We'll see how they hold up.

Every Sunday I try to post up some unique videos.  It has become a fairly popular feature...  This Sunday was Mini-Vid Sunday.  Take a look at what people can do without using ANY gas.  

I posted up an Open House Announcement - 9010Brixham Court for Monday's post.  The Open House was on Father's Day.  There weren't a lot of people, but the ones that were there loved the house. 

Each month I do a comprehensive market report.  On Tuesday I posted up the Gwinnett County Market Report, April/May 2008.  I did change it up a bit, by making it a slide show instead of a wall of text. 

AVMs or Automatic Valuation Models (Tools) kind of make me crazy.  Zillow is only accurate within 20% about 80% of the time in Gwinnett County... but people think that they are some sort of end-all-be-all for valuation.  Instead of fighting, I have added one to my GarageHomesUSA site... and I will work to educate my consumers about the stats. 

I recently had the opportunity to sit down with Angel Walker, a local Stager.  No interview, just a great conversation.  Talking with a Stager is a great way to branch out and get a different take on the real estate market from someone that is connected, but not an agent. 

Each month, GarageHomesUSA.com gets a new issue.  June is up!

Automotive video bonus!.  I went down to downtown Tucker for the monthly Cruise-In.  There were some very cool rides, despite the earlier rain.  I shot a panorama, as well as some videos of the Cruising in Tucker. 

LaneBailey.com is always the place for the latest...

I have finally put the last nail in the June GarageHomesUSA - LaneBailey.com eNewsletter.  And it has mailed.  There are a couple of really good stories in it. 

If you aren't already a subscriber... why?  It is free, and a way to catch up on some of the posts from various sources over the last month.  There is a subscription button right on the top of the front page of my blog.  There will soon be a subscribe button on GarageHomesUSA as well. 

In fact, GarageHomesUSA might be getting a major surgery over the next couple of weeks...  I just can't help it. 

There is also a newsletter archive available on LaneBailey.com.  You can get a look at past newsletters, including the super secret May eNewsletter.  ;^ )