Looking Out From the Garage: December 2008

I just ran a survey of the newly listed properties from the last 30 days.  I have to say that I am quite surprised by what I found...

I was looking specifically for how the listings were presented.  We know from every bit of research done on buyer behavior that photos and virtual tours are among the most important things to the VAST majority of buyers.  Homes with few or no pictures are most often passed over... regardless of how nice the property might be.  Buyers want to see LOTS of pictures.  They want virtual tours, and they want both the pictures AND the virtual tours to be high quality.

So, with that in mind I took a trip through the last 30 days of listings for Lilburn in FMLS.  In that period, there were 56 new listings entered.  I sorted them by how recent they were.  I was looking to see how well presented the listings were.  I did NOT judge the quality of the photos, because that owuld be subjective.  I just judged on quantity.

Of the 56 newest listings:

• 8 had 0 pictures, 14.3%
• 7 had 1 picture, 12.5%
• 6 has 2-8 pictures , 10.7%
• 13 had 9-11 pictures, 23.2%
• 22 had 12 pictures , 39.3%
• 6 had virtual tours, 10.7%

I have to admit that I was stunned that over 60% of the listings did not have the maximum number of pictures allowed... and almost 90% had no virtual tour.  I'm not talking about bad tours... I am talking about ANY virtual tour.  Virtual tours are available for as little as $99...  I don't think those are great, but at least they are something.  And for the desperate, they can be done for less if the agent or seller provides the pictures.  Personally, I use a high quality tour and it is more expensive, but I also think EVERY listing needs a virtual tour.

If I recall correctly, it has been almost a year since FMLS changed to allow 12 pictures on the listing.  I have to say that I am stunned when I still see less than eight pictures on a listing (the old limit).  And when I see no pictures... or even the drive-by curb-shot... I wonder what the problem is.  Ugly property?  But even then, I would want a prospective buyer to know before they visit that it won't be a showplace.  I value their time, and don't want them to waste it looking at a property that won't suit their needs.  I nkow that when I take buyers out and the house isn't as advertised, my buyers are annoyed.

The Bottom Line...

With digital camera technology, the ease of uploading pictures, affordable virtual tours and the knowledge that images are what buyers want to see, there is no excuse for not maxing out the pictures AND providing a virtual tour for EVERY listing.

Agents and sellers that think that they are creating "mystery" by not showing pictures of their listings are just flat out mistaken.  There are too many options...  Instead of mystery, they just provide an excuse to move to the next listing.

from LilburnDwellings.com

This one isn't as specific as some of the other 101 Cars... this is a category. and frankly, if someone calls me and asks me if I want to beat on drive their Trophy Truck... I'm not asking what brand it is. I'm asking what time I have to show up and if I have to trade my wife.
Trophy truck in the desert tearing it up hard.
These things are just bad... in a good way. 1000+ horsepower (most cars have less than 200), 30+ inches of suspension travel (most cars have less than 6)... And although they seldom are capable of speeds over 150 mph, they can do most of that on roads that most people would drive 10 mph.

A friend of mine that has run lower budget off-road racers and ridden in a couple of trophy trucks said that sections where his truck was jumping around like the legs of a mogul skier were passed over by the trophy truck at three times the speed with the bumps being something he was aware of... but not consumed by. Not to say that it can't be a rough ride, but when they meet the limit it is because there is something substantial there...

I think that the suspension designs of these beasts are amazing... and varied. In NASCAR racing, there isn't a lot of room for design variation. in road racing, there are things that work... and most racers use those. In other types of racing, there are traditions or rules that limit the creativity of the builders. In Trophy Trucks... that is NOT the case. The designs are varied, and creativity is encouraged. The evolution is still in the stage where crazy things happen... and work.

Feel free to call me if you want me to drive your Trophy Truck...
from LaneBailey.com... be sure to visit if you'd like to read more of the 101 cars.

This is a two part post. It first give me an excuse to showcase a car that I think it too cool... The Subaru WRX STi. All Wheel Drive, turbo charged power, a great rallying history, plenty of mods available. It also allows me to talk about rally drivers... These guys have skills. In the US, they run roads without a preview. They have a navigator and a details set of instructions... In Europe (and anywhere else the WRC is run), the drivers get to pre-run the course with the navigator, but not in a race vehicle. What it comes down to is that rally drivers have to drive in three dimension (they fley, too) on roads that are constantly changing (gravel, dirt, and narrow twisty roads with debris) in whatever weather happens. These guys have skills. Here is an example.

And here is another example...


Thanks for the link to the first video Tazmann. from LaneBailey.com

If a TR7 and Darth Vader's Tie Fighter had a child, this would be it... I still think it should be black, but the normal livery is white with green and red stripes.

Loads of power... rear wheel drive and sideways.

Nothin' say lovin' like Ferrari power and a bad attitude.

Too many enthusiasts have never even heard of these.  I might not know about them if it hadn't been for a couple of chance encounters. 

As a kid, my family went to Ecuador for vacation a couple of times.  We had exchange students and went to visit with them.  On one of the trips, there was a road race (rallye/raide) passing through Manta.  We had the opportunity to view the cars up close after they came into town.  I was in heaven.  I was about 9 years old and loved cars... 

The following morning we got up early and headed out of town on a bus.  We hopped off about half an hour outside of Manta.  We sat down at a little roadside stand, waiting for the cars and eating bananas.  We had a couple of hours to wait.  But, when the time came we could hear the cars... for MILES.  These were full prepped race cars.  And they were clipping. 

The location that we were in had a couple of nice features.  We were on a small rise over the road (literally only a couple dozen feet from the edge).  The cars had a rise as they approached, which caused many of the cars to catch a little air.  As they were calming down from the jump, they had a gentle left and a sharp right turn complex. 

The cars were amazing.  These were road prepped rally cars, and they were flying... I mean in the air.  As they hit the ground, they rotated sideways and slid through the turns.  Engines screamed, tires squealed and the crowd gasped and cheered. 

One of the last cars to come by was a Stratos.  It had an amazing sound.  It was beautiful and menacing.  I swear that it had anger in its voice and glee at the same time. 

On our next trip a few years later, Angelo, our host, presented me with a model of the same car we saw racing.  I knew the Lancia Stratos...  I loved it, and would still love to own one of these evil, wonderful pieces of racing history. 

For more, feel free to visit 101 Cars on my other blog...

The commercials are driving me crazy...  I hear them constantly.  Two women talking about buying a house, and the one woman tells her friend that she paid $20,000 for this beautiful 4 bedroom home. 

The announcer kicks in that there are actual listings for 4 bedrooms homes for under $20,000. 

They cut back to the ladies, and the friend has now bought a house for $102/mo. 

Ok, this isn't Detroit.  This is Gwinnett County, GA.  In Detroit there are homes that are overpriced at $500.  They need more work than they are worth, and even bulldozing it and building a new house is pointless because of the overhead inventory.  But that isn't the case here. 

Any home in Gwinnett County that is under $20,000 is not going to be habitable.  There might be one out there...  But I wouldn't hold my breath. 

The problem is...

There ARE buyers holding their breath.  They are sure that homes that are priced at $200,000 right now will magically be priced at $19,000 next year.  That isn't to say that prices might not come down... but they are almost as likely to go up.  And the range for either is fairly narrow. 

And the OTHER problem...

Right now there are rates that are close to, if not touching, the high 4% range for a 30 year fixed rate loan.  And even a small change... say 1/2 of a percent (.5%)... could mean that you are paying as much per month for a $250,000 loan as you would have been for a $262,000 loan.  If rates were to go up a point, that would be like raising the price by another $13,000...  Now that $250,000 loan is going to cost the same as a $275,000 loan. 

So, if the prices were to remain flat, but rates rise, the money you spend each month buys less house. 

So...

Alway keep in mind that there are  a lot of components that go into a home purchase.  Aside from things like the $7500 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit, there are interest considerations, price, location and area... also condition and construction. 

If you want to see what IS available, drop into LilburnDwellings.com.  I will be starting a new series looking at deal in the Lilburn and Gwinnett County area.  These will be homes that are priced attractively in the market, both foreclosures and other sellers.  When you are ready to buy a new home, feel free to give me a call.

As the end of the year quickly approaches, it is time for me to look back and see how my predictions for 2008 came out...  Now, I did give the post a quick glane last night, but I have pretty much set it to the back of my mind since writing it...  I certainly didn't want to go back and edit the post... and I think it is pretty obvious that I didn't. 

And, I will be writing my predictions for 2009 in the next few days. 

So, on to the carnage predictions:

• 1.  Mortgage Rate Lower or Higher?  Both.  I think that rates will go down a little more for well-qualified buyers.  High credit scores will yield low rates.  But, those with lower scores will see rates a little higher than what they could find this year... if they can get a loan.

I think I did ok with this one.  I certainly hit the last part right... if they can get a loan.

• 2.  Credit Loosen or Tighten?  I think that it needs to be tighter than it has been over the last couple of years... and that will still be looser than it was a few years ago.  So, I guess I will say that credit will tighten a bit more. 

I thought credit would tighten a little more... that is an understatement.  It tightened a LOT.  There is still credit to be had, in fact there are lenders that would love to find buyers to loan money to.... but it is also tighter than it was last year... so I did ok on this one, too. 

• 3.  Number of Agents in Your Market Up or Down?  I think that there will be a 20% erosion in the number of agents in this market.  Active agents might even be more eroded than that.  And the 80/20 rule will still be in effect.

Well, I don't know if we have dropped 20%, but I know there has been a serious erosion in the number of agents... especially active agents.  A lot of agents that were active the last few years still have their licenses, but they have gone off of the active rolls. 

• 4.  Real Estate Inventory Levels in Your Market Increase, or Decrease?  I think the inventory will top out in the spring, and by the end of the year be slightly below this years levels.  

I hit this one faily well.  New Inventories actually mostly peaked in 2007 for Gwinnett County.  But, the listing inventories were high through around the end of May.  Comparing to 2007, we are going to close out 2008 down about 15% on inventory... still too high, but WAY better than 2007. 

• 5.  Better Real Estate Market or Worse?  Worse at the beginning of the year, flat by mid-year (compared to this year) and up by the end of the year.  It will come in slightly better than this year... or really close.

I was wrong...  The only thing I can say in my defense is that sales were WAY down in the spring, down by the middle of the year and only down a little by the end of the year (compared to 2007).  I expected the numbers to be better by about 20 points. 

• 6.  Buyer's Market or Seller's Market?  Most of the time it will be a buyer's market.  But, I think that when the recovery starts some of the pent up demand will push the market... or some sub-markets... to the seller's side of the market.

Pretty much blew this one, too.  At least for 2008.  We'll have to see for 2009. 

• 7.  More Foreclosures or Less?  I think that there needs to be more, but that they will top out around the end of the 1st quarter.  It will be a plateau until the end of the year.  Compared to this year there will be more.  

Aside from a bump at the end of the year, I am tracking fair on foreclosures v 2007.  I'll kick out my prediction for 2009 on this later. 

• 8.  Home Sales Prices Flat, Rise, or Fall?  Overall, I think they will be flat.  I'd like to see them fall just a bit to get buyers off of the sidelines, and they may do that... but overall I still think it will be flat. 

Should I say that I got my wish?  Prices fell in Gwinnett County.  Not as dramatically as in many places, but they weren't flat.  So, I'm wrongish...

• 9.  Condo Sales Prices Flat, Rise, or Fall?  The recovery for condos will be at least a few quarters behind the home recovery.  I think there will still be a drop because of the excess inventory.

I got this one. 

• 10.  Commercial Real Estate Stay Strong or Start to Soften?  I don't think start to soften will cover it.  I think that in Atlanta we are WAY over-built.  There are miles and miles of commercial footage sitting vacant... and no real slowdown in building.  Somebody is going to figure out that there isn't that much wrong with 20 year old buildings, and then the prices will have to adjust downward.  Since the supply is SO high, there is no way the demand can hold the line on prices. 

We are getting ready to see a HUGE problem in Commercial.  It has already started, so I got that one. 

I also had some bonus predictions.  I didn't do so good... 

• I said that the same party wouldn't control both houses of Congress AND the Presidency after the election...  I was WAY wrong. 
  
• I said that Global Temps had peaked.  This was actually cheating a littlem because that happened in 1934.  Even looking more recently, 1998... but that was still cooler than 1934.  Even more recently, 2006... but that was still cooler than 1998 and 1934.  2007 was warmer than 2008.  The current trend is cooling.
• I said I would finish my Jeepster... that was wishful thinking. 
  

All in all, on the ones that I was serious about I did 65%... (I'm giving myself half credit for one of the answers).  Better than most weathermen. 

I have a general preference for underdogs.  I can't say for sure why, but I can make up a few good reasons...
photo credit: MJLphoto.com

• What fun is it to cheer for the team that always wins?  There isn't any suspense.  When you cheer for the underdog, the outcome is in doubt... it also makes the wins sweeter!
• I guess I have a hero complex.  I didn't like to see kids getting bullied on the playground as a kid, and I would rather throw my support to the "bullied" than to the "bully".
• Often the favorite isn't the best... just the most popular.  It isn't just true in sports, but in politics and many other areas. 
  

There are a LOT of great underdogs to cheer for.  Some are just for fun, others are more serious. 

Look for my list of the Top Ten Underdogs coming up before New Year's Eve... on LaneBailey.com

I will provide the exact link when I put up the post...

Ok, as I sit here... just off of a conversation with Santa, and almost ready for my own off-spring to destroy the family room with Santa's bounty (ok, there will be destruction... me and the 4 year old got matching RC cars...), I thought I would pass along some helpful hints to file away for next year for those that might have guys they are buying for.

Of course, those Non-Guys are wondering why now?  Why not last month?

Because the first thing you need to remember about guys is that we weren't thinking about Christmas last month... Christmas is today!  Many guys were doing their shopping 12 hours ago.  So, on to the hints...

• We need new boxers every few years.  But we don't particularly need them for Christmas.  In fact socks, t-shirts, pants, sweaters...  We don't especially want those for Christmas either. 
  
• Tools.  Decrepit car parts... new or used.  Tools.  Toys.  And tools.  We like gifts that are difficult for the kids to pick up.  And we like gifts that can break other gifts...  ;^ )
• Gift certificates are also good for guys... especially Dad-Guys.  And places that have food are always popular.  In fact, we would rather get a gift certificate for food that we know is going to mostly go to taking the family out than getting a sweater... 
  
• By the way, when I say food... I mean food.  That doesn't include salads... it means meat.  And remember, there is a hiearchy for food...  At the bottom are the things that are food for real food...  Like salads...  Bunnies eat that.  Cows are a step up, so steak is certainly preferable.  Bison is like a mean, tough, ugly cow... so bison steak is even better.  If we are talking seafood... shark.  We like the danger.

And speaking of hunting and danger, that brings us to why we wait until December 23rd to shop.  It is a biological imperative.  The thrill of the hunt, and the danger of the chase.  There is no challenge or danger buying before Thanksgiving...  But there is plenty of danger taking on the daunting task of buying for a SWMBO two days before Christmas.  (SWMBO is She Who Must Be Obeyed... wife/girlfriend/etc.)

Oh my God... can't you just wrap it... at least use a gift bag!

It's wasteful...  Energy and resource intensive... and then there is picking the right paper or bag.  So, add stress to that. 

Eight years ago my Father-in-Law gave me a set of wrenches in a Sears bag.  They are my favorite wrenches.  My Mother-in-Law was shaking her head because of the "wrapping"... and I was too busy enjoying the present... THAT is my kind of gift bag!

Just this weekend, I gave a present to a friend of mine.  It was a Hot Wheels car (he appreciated that I gave him a brand new '69 Chevelle).  It was "wrapped" in six Kroger bags and two tards of shrink wrap...  So, not only was it cheap, but it was challenging to explore. 

While he would have appreciated it, at least it wasn't a pair of moleskin pants neatly folded into the glovebox of a crushed car... but that would have been VERY cool. 

The bottom line is to remember that we are just bigger version of little boys...  We like the same stuff.  Sometime in bigger sizes (real cars instead of toy cars... who am I fooling, real cars ARE toys). 

Enjoy, and look forward to next year.

He is NOT the guy you think he is... 

To start with, there are so many people that think that Rudolph is an actual reindeer...  It isn't.  While Santa was here, we went and popped the hood on the sleigh.  That is a serious heavy duty piece of equipment. 

Red phase

Ultraviolet

Dynamic

Ocular

LED

Performance

Headlamp

Santa isn't playing reindeer games with that thing... It can actually melt snow for a mile...  It also happens to be one of the ways Sanata keeps warm in the sleigh.  It heats the air in front of him, so he is riding in a warm breeze... or at least less cold. 

Now, I'm not saying that there wasn't a reindeer with a red nose at one point, but Santa has upgraded...  By the way, he isn't really doing the sleigh anymore.  He actually has a custom International CXT.  It has a higher payload, and the rails don't freeze to the snow... but if he didn't have Christmas Magic, that thing would be sitting in someone's living room... it weighs about 15,000 pounds, without the toy bag.  It is a little heavier than a sleigh on the roof. 

I was also a little shocked by all of the technology that Santa is using.  From the tablet PC in the "sleigh", to the serious GPS system.  He has a satellite link with the North Pole, where the elves are running logistics.  Fuel dumps and present stations are all over the route.  He also keeps a digital camera handy... bet you'd never guess it is a Canon Elph...  He says he never knows when he might run across something noteworthy... I was trying to find a link to his blog... but he only shares it with mythical creatures and kids too young to read.

I don't know what Santa thinks is noteworthy, but he wasn't sharing pics.  And he wouldn't let me shoot pics either.  In fact, I will probably be getting some coal next year just for writing about it...

Sure, this is a sacred time of year.  It celebrates an important event, both spiritually and historically...  But that doesn't mean that there shouldn't be a little time for some fun, right? 

At the same time, learning about customs from around the world HAS to be good, right? 

From Canada, Bob and Doug Mackenzie...

And from Nebraska we have Larry the Cable Guy...

Let's not forget Adam Sandler's Chanukah Song...